Copper rises to record on bullish Citi outlook, supply concerns

Copper rose to a record, underpinned by a bullish price outlook from Citigroup and a looming supply-demand imbalance.

The industrial metal rose as much as 1.2% to $11 581.50 a ton, surpassing a previous high set earlier this week. Copper will average $13 000 in the second quarter as metal is stockpiled in the US, creating a deficit elsewhere, according to the base scenario presented by Citi analysts in a note on Friday.

Traders are anticipating supply dislocations as more metal flows to America ahead of the possible introduction of import tariffs. The copper market is set to enter a structural deficit next year with the shortfall widening over the next decade on robust demand and constrained supply, BloombergNEF said in a report Thursday.

Preparing itself for such a supply crunch, trading house Mercuria Energy Group ordered about $500 million of copper for withdrawal from London Metal Exchange warehouses, according to people familiar with the matter – the biggest cancellation of stock in more than a decade.

“We have conviction in copper upside through 2026 supported by multiple bullish catalysts, including an incrementally constructive fundamental and macro backdrop,” the Citi analysts including Max Layton said.

Other analysts have issued more conservative outlooks for copper in recent days. While the metal is expected to remain “volatile” and could easily reach new highs, prices above $11,000 a ton are not sustainable as the global market is not physically tight, Macquarie Group analysts led by Peter Taylor said in a note on Thursday.

Copper inventories at global exchanges have spiked to over 656 000 tons, the highest since 2018, with around two-thirds held in warehouses under Comex in the US. Macquarie’s view echoed caution from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. earlier this week, which doesn’t expect a copper shortage until 2029.

Copper rose 1.1% to $11 572.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange as of 11:20 a.m. in Shanghai. Other metals edged up, with aluminum gaining 0.1% and zinc climbing 0.3%.

© 2025 Bloomberg

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