Reform UK overtakes Labour in race for Holyrood – Daily Business

Reform UK has surged to second place in voting intentions for the Scottish parliament, overtaking Labour which is on course for its worst result in 116 years, according to a YouGov poll.

The SNP, while retaining a strong lead, has seen its vote share fall to 34% of the constituency vote, down 14 points since the 2021 election, and 29% of the list vote, down 11 points.

This would be the SNP’s lowest share of the regional vote since 2003, before the party gained power.

Support for independence is also outweighed by opposition, with 53% No and 47% Yes.

The constituency vote will determine the results in the 73 seats elected by first past the post, while the list vote will determine the 56 regional members elected by proportional representation.

Reform UK has a 20% share on both votes, a breakthrough for the party that won just 0.2% of the list vote in 2021. Such a result would guarantee that the party won seats in the Scottish Parliament, a first for a radical right party.

Labour has matching 15% vote shares for both parts of the election, relative to a 22% constituency share and an 18% regional share in 2021. If repeated in May, this would be Labour’s worst result in either a Westminster or Holyrood election in 116 years.

A mere third of Scots who backed Labour at the 2024 general election (32%) currently intend to cast their constituency vote in May for the party, with 14% now supporting Reform UK, 13% now intending to vote SNP and 4-6% backing each of the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens. A further one in five (21%), though, are currently unsure who to vote for.

The Conservatives have also suffered severe losses, with just 48% of their 2024 voters intending to give the party their constituency vote at present, though these have mostly gone in one direction, with 27% now backing Reform UK and no more than 3% having switched to any other party. One in six (17%) 2024 Tories are undecided.

The Conservative party, currently the second largest party at Holyrood, has seen its support halve since 2021. On these figures, it would fall to just 10% of the constituency vote (down 12 points) and 11% of the list vote (down 12 points). To date, the party’s lowest ever Scotland-wide vote share in any election has been 12%.

The Green party is on 12% of the list vote, up four points since 2021, as well as on 9% of the constituency vote. Previously, however, it has only stood in a handful of constituencies.

Also up on the 2021 election are the Liberal Democrats, who are on 10% of the constituency vote and 9% of the list vote, gains of three and four points respectively.

SNP voters have been more loyal over the past 18 months, with 73% expecting to cast their constituency vote for the party, though this falls to 63% for the regional vote, where 15% instead intend to back the Greens. Around one in ten 2024 SNP voters (9-10%) are undecided on either vote.

Malcolm Offord, leader of Reform UK Scotland, said: “This poll reflects the reality we are hearing on the doorsteps, that voters fed up of 19 failed years under the SNP, are switching directly to Reform.

“Anas Sarwar is in the last chance saloon; his desperate attempts to escape Scottish Labour’s toxic brand and make this a presidential election between him and Swinney have backfired spectacularly.

“The SNP are down 14 points on the 2021 election, recording their lowest opinion poll share since John Swinney’s disastrous first leadership of the party in 2003.

“It is now a clear two horse race between a clapped-out SNP Government, and new direction for Scotland with Reform.” 

Graham Simpson, who defected from the Tories to become Reform UK Scotland’s only MSP, said : “It is clear if people want to get rid of the SNP then they need to vote for Reform UK Scotland. We are the nearest challengers to the SNP voting for anyone else will be wasted.”

On the independence issue, Reform UK’s support is relatively evenly split across No and Yes voters (24% vs 16%), while being roughly four times higher among those who backed Brexit than wanted to stay in the EU (42% vs 9%), where they are the largest party by a 24-point margin.

The Conservatives are losing their claim to being the party of the Union, with just 20% of No voters intending to vote for the party this May. Their support is also higher among Leave voters than Remainers (17% vs 9%).

Labour’s support is likewise concentrated among No voters (26% vs 3%), but is instead higher among those who backed Remain than Leave (18% vs 9%).

John Swinney remains the most popular party leader in Scotland, with a third of Scots (33%) having a favourable opinion of the SNP leader, while half (50%) see the first minister unfavourably.

This compares to just 17% of Scots having a positive view of Keir Starmer, while three quarters (74%) see the prime minister in a negative light. This includes 2024 Labour voters being twice as likely to see the party’s leader unfavourably (64%) as favourably (32%).

Other UK-wide party leaders are also not popular north of the border, with Scots seeing Nigel Farage unfavourably by a margin of 69% to 24%, Kemi Badenoch by 58% to 17%, and Ed Davey by 37% to 22%.

Just 18% of Scots hold a favourable opinion of Anas Sarwar, while 52% see the Scottish Labour leader in a negative light, including nearly half (45%) of 2024 Labour voters, more than the 31% who see him favourably.

Other Scottish party leaders are relative unknowns, with at least 56% of Scots saying they don’t know how they feel about Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay, Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton, Scottish Green co-leaders Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, and Alba leader Kenny MacAskill. This compares to just 7-12% seeing any of them favourably.

The economy and health are seen as the top issues facing Scotland, with 44-48% of Scots feeling they are among the most pressing matters for the country. This is followed by immigration, which 36% see as one of the most important issues facing Scotland.

Nearly a quarter of Scots (23%) believe housing is one of the top issues facing the country, with 19% saying so of Brexit and education, the latter up four points since December.

One in seven (14-15%) place tax and crime among Scotland’s biggest issues, with 12% saying so of each of Scotland’s constitutional future and the environment. The proportion of Scots seeing welfare benefits as a top issue has fallen four points since last month to 11%.