Goldman raises year-end gold forecast to $5 400 an ounce

Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end gold price forecast by more than 10%, reflecting growing private-sector diversification into bullion on top of already-strong demand from central banks and exchange-traded funds.

The bank raised its December 2026 price target to $5 400 an ounce, from a prior forecast of $4 900, on the assumption that private investors who have bought gold as a hedge against macro policy risks will maintain these positions through the end of the year, analysts including Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas wrote in a note dated January 21.

Unlike previous hedges tied to specific events, such as the November 2024 US election, positions taken against perceived risks, such as fiscal sustainability, may not fully resolve this year and are therefore “stickier,” the analysts said.

Gold has risen more than 70% over the past 12 months, smashing successive records on a scorching rally that has continued into the early weeks of this year. Capital is being driven toward haven assets as global power dynamics shift dramatically and President Donald Trump renews his attacks on the Federal Reserve, shaking faith in the independence of the US central bank.

Central-bank buying is expected to average 60 tons a month in 2026, with monetary authorities in emerging markets “likely to continue the structural diversification of their reserves into gold,” the analysts said.

Western ETF holdings, meanwhile, have increased by around 500 tons since the start of 2025, outpacing predictions based solely on US interest-rate cuts. Goldman expects a further 50 basis points of Fed easing in 2026.

As concerns mount over long-term monetary and fiscal policy trajectories in major economies, gold has also been boosted by demand linked to the so-called debasement trade, including physical purchases by high-net-worth families and investor call-option buying, Goldman said.

Risks to the upgraded forecast are “significantly skewed to the upside because private-sector investors may diversify further on lingering global policy uncertainty,” the analysts wrote. “That said, a sharp reduction in perceived risks around the long-run path for global fiscal/monetary policy would pose downside risk if it were to cause liquidation of macro policy hedges.”

© 2026 Bloomberg

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