After more than two weeks of what began as peaceful protests in Iran and devolved into calls by many protesters for an end to the regime, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, on a visit to India, said he believes we are witnessing the “final days and weeks” of the Iranian government.
“If a regime can only keep itself in power by force, then it’s effectively at the end,” he said.
It is true that Iran has deployed massive force against many protests, at least since January 10. According to various reports — some credible eyewitness accounts and some from the government — hundreds and possibly thousands of Iranians have lost their lives in this most recent outbreak of unrest.
In Washington and other Western capitals, members of Congress, parliamentarians, experts, pundits, analysts, and think tankers have variously argued for regime change in Iran, some promoting military action by the Trump administration to bring it about.
It was not, however, their only dire prescription for Iranians.
Many, if not most, of these self-appointed arbiters of wisdom also chose to promote Reza Pahlavi — son of the deposed shah and Israel’s favorite Iranian — as a potential leader to form a government that would replace the theocracy.
Presumably, Merz, who during Israel’s war against Iran in June 2025 declared approvingly that it was doing the world’s “dirty work,” would cheer such an outcome.
“With the legitimacy and popularity I have received from you, I announce another stage of the national uprising.”
Pahlavi has certainly taken on the mantle of leader for himself, making grandiose proclamations on behalf of the Iranian people.
“Now, relying on your million-strong response to the calls of the past days, and with the legitimacy and popularity I have received from you, I announce another stage of the national uprising to overthrow the Islamic Republic,” he wrote in a long tweet with an accompanying Persian-language video message.
He continues to insist that revolution is at hand and urges Iranians not to give up on their struggle — presumably, their struggle to bring him to power. He also supports — no, implores President Donald Trump to take action, including military strikes, to bring about regime change in Iran.
“This Is a War”
With the mounting death toll and images of body bags in warehouses in Tehran, CBS News asked Pahlavi on January 12 if it was responsible to demand Iranians take to the streets in the face of mortal danger. Did Pahlavi, the anchor asked, bear any responsibility for the deaths of his fellow Iranians?
“This is a war, and war has casualties,” the former crown prince responded.
A civil war is something many Iranians have dreaded ever since witnessing the aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
Yet what is unfolding in Iran now is not quite the civil war that Pahlavi is invoking. Iranian protesters had come out to streets peacefully — their grievances recognized as valid by the government — not to start a “war.” A civil war is something many Iranians have dreaded ever since witnessing the aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iraq and Syria’s civil strife, which both saw destructive sectarian fighting and, eventually, the atrocities of the Islamic State.
In his long tweet, Pahlavi also got into thornier rhetoric of war. He suggested state-run media buildings were “legitimate targets,” adding, “Government employees, and the armed and security forces, have the opportunity to join the people.”
At least one state broadcaster building was torched by protesters, but this is a far cry from making “targets” out of them. What’s more, government employees who are not directly participating in hostilities are the opposite of “legitimate targets” in the context of war: Attacking civilian infrastructure, even state propaganda organs, is a war crime.
Who Supports Pahlavi?
Even if we are watching the throes of what is to become a civil war — a similar pattern emerged in Syria, for instance, where a peaceful popular uprising morphed into a civil war after the Assad regime’s brutal crackdown — there’s little evidence that what’s happening on the streets of cities across Iran is a war to restore the monarchy.
This is not to say no Iranians, however, support Pahlavi.
Pahlavi, who has now lived — mostly quietly — in the U.S. for 48 of his 66 years and raised an American family, would be likely be welcomed by many pro-democracy and anti-Islamic Republic types who live in the West.
Many of these Iranians abroad are Pahlavi’s most ardent supporters. While he has denied he is seeking to restore the Peacock Throne, arguing he is simply “leading the transition” to a different political system, his followers in the West have been crystal clear that he is their “shah,” and fully expect him to rule over Iranians in a resurrected dynasty.
It is difficult to gauge how much support Pahlavi has inside Iran, but it is clear it is not insignificant.
Some ordinary citizens are so fed up with the regime — its social and political restrictions, its inability to provide any real solutions to their international isolation, and its miserable economic situation — that they would welcome any change.
Others, nostalgic for the rule of Pahlavi’s father which provided their parents and grandparents with societal liberalism, a place on the world stage, and relative economic prosperity — though not, notably, political freedoms — would welcome a return to Pahlavism, whether in the person of a shah or leader of a new republic.
Yet others might chant his name in protests because he is the most familiar and visible of the opposition leaders in exile, given that the only other major figure is Maryam Rajavi, leader of the Mojahedin-e Khalq group, or MEK, which is reviled by the vast majority of Iranians for having fought alongside Saddam Hussein in the 1980s Iran–Iraq War.
Pahlavi’s profile as an alternative to the regime was significantly boosted during the Woman, Life, Freedom movement in the wake of Mahsa Amini’s death in 2022. He became very vocal in his denunciations of the regime’s violent crackdown on protesters and began — for the first time, really, since he lacked confidence during previous rounds of significant unrest like the 2009 Green Movement — to present himself as the only person who could lead a movement to bring about an end to the Islamic Republic.
After Iran was successful in squashing the women’s protests, Pahlavi continued his campaign to overthrow the theocracy. He held rallies, met with politicians in the U.S. and Europe, and spoke at conferences. He argued against attempts by both President Joe Biden and Trump to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran and implored the Europeans to break off any diplomacy with Iran.
Embracing Israel
In 2023, when it appeared that the U.S. and European countries were politely declining his entreaties, Pahlavi accepted an invitation by then-Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel to visit Israel. During the trip, he also took a met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other dignitaries.
For many Iranians, both in Iran and in the West, his embrace of Israel at a time it was threatening Iran was unbecoming, if not downright traitorous. His supporters, however, were unmoved by objections. Perhaps they hoped that Israel’s patronage could help restore the monarchy.
In pro-Pahlavi rallies ever since, Iran’s former flag of Iran — the imperial flag, bearing a crown in addition to the lion and sun — is waved alongside the Israeli flag. Even Farah Pahlavi, the former queen and crown prince’s mother, whose reputation across the political spectrum remained relatively benign, was photographed holding the Israeli flag in her apartment in Paris.
After the Hamas attacks on Israel in October 7, 2023, and the ensuing genocide in Gaza, Pahlavi and his supporters maintained their support of Israel. Even as the world largely objected to the massive Israeli bombing campaign that was killing thousands of innocent Palestinians, they never wavered. (Notably, Pahlavi’s notion of civilian state-media employees as legitimate targets is the same logic that animated Israel’s widely denounced attacks on Palestinian journalists during the genocide in Gaza, which has become the deadliest war on record for reporters.)
Then Israel attacked Iran. In June 2025, in what became known as the 12-Day War, Israel bombed from the air to destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities, assassinated senior military leaders and nuclear scientists, and bombed infrastructure and apartment buildings, killing more than 1,000 Iranians, including children.
Not only did Pahlavi fail to condemn the attack on his country and compatriots, but he also called on Iranians to seize this “Berlin Wall” moment and rise up against the regime. He subsequently claimed that he had recruited, through a secure web-based channel, some 50,000 members of the armed forces and security forces to his side ready to defect at the appropriate time.
One would imagine that today, with security forces firing on demonstrations, would be the “appropriate” time. There has been no evidence, however, that a single member of the armed forces, police, or Basij militia has defected despite his continued calls for an uprising.
If anything, the unified security forces is what has prevented the protests from turning into a revolution. Since the end of December when the first protests erupted, Pahlavi has been the most vocal opposition figure urging citizens to march, first giving times and dates — which were followed by protesters in large numbers — and then directing the people to “take over” streets and city centers.
The marches were largely peaceful, but there was also some violence and rioting on the part of some protesters, including the burning of mosques and the killing of security forces. The government used the violence to justify its massive show of force and the deaths of hundreds of civilians.
Interference From Abroad
It is hard to say whether Iranians inside Iran, especially those who didn’t want to start a war with security forces or their military, are disappointed in Pahlavi’s position. Has he lost some support owing to his overt backing of Israel or his open entreaties for Trump to attack Iran? In the absence of regular, reliable polling, it is for now difficult to tell.
What seems clear is that very few Iranians — and hardly any activists inside Iran and inside prisons — support foreign interference in their affairs or a foreign-imposed regime change. Pahlavi’s grandfather was deposed by the Allies in World War II, his father was brought back to the throne with the help of the U.S. and U.K. in 1953, and the memory of foreign meddling in Iran is very long.
At this point, it seems unlikely that the regime will fall any day soon. And, short of a prolonged war and occupation, Pahlavi will probably have to continue his campaign for leadership of a new Iran from the safety of the West.
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