Why Wall Street thinks prediction markets are here to stay

Wall Street pros are bullish on betting markets and convinced they’re here to stay. Bloomberg Markets surveyed 406 readers in October to assess their views of prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which are exploding in popularity. The survey comes as a growing number of traditional Wall Street firms are investing in the burgeoning sector, which lets traders wager on sports, politics and other real-world events.

The vast majority of respondents expect more convergence between gaming and finance in the future, and an almost equal number say the blurring line between investing and gambling warrants further regulation. But despite general agreement on the size of the opportunity, survey-takers are more cautious when it comes to their own habits. Among respondents who find prediction markets useful to their job, less than a third say they regularly use them to inform trading decisions.

1.  I find the prediction markets’ odds on market events like central bank rate paths and earnings results useful in my role in markets.

2.  How often do you look at prediction markets to inform your trading decisions?

3.  The owner of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange Inc., recently announced plans to invest as much as $2 billion into the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket. Do you see more convergence between gaming and finance in the future?

4.   Robinhood Markets Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vlad Tenev says that tokenization will “eat” the entire financial system. What’s your view?

5.  In your mind, are investing and gambling fundamentally different activities?

6 .  How should regulators react to the blurring line between investing and gambling?

7.  Zero-day options are gambling.

8.  Do you personally bet on sports or news events?

9.  Over the life of your betting on sports and events, have you … ?

10. Are you a more successful investor or gambler?

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.

© 2025 Bloomberg

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