Iron ore slips on seasonal softening and as China meeting looms

Iron ore prices slipped for the first time this week as the steel market showed signs of seasonal weakness and traders looked ahead to China’s upcoming economic policy meeting.

Futures for the steelmaking ingredient fell as much as 1.4%. Weekly data from Mysteel showed that capacity utilization and daily hot-metal output among surveyed mills declined, indicating a year-end slowdown is taking hold. Blast furnace operating rates also fell.

“Iron ore prices will continue to face pressure from easing fundamentals,” Mysteel analysts said on Thursday. “On the supply side, Australian miners typically ramp up shipments in December to meet annual or half-year targets, so global ore volumes are expected to increase significantly this month.”

Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are also approaching record levels for this time of year, and flat steel inventories aren’t drawing down as they normally would seasonally, Goldman Sachs Group said in a research note. That combination is squeezing steel-mill profitability and contributing to a more bearish market tone.

However, iron ore prices have managed to defy many analysts’ expectations that prices would dip below the psychological $100 a ton level toward the end of the year. Steady hot-metal output at steel mills and broader macro optimism, plus tighter supply from BHP Group’s stand-off with China’s state-backed iron ore trader have helped to keep the market steady.

Beyond supply and demand, traders are also awaiting signals from China’s Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference, the annual policy meeting usually held in December, though the exact timing remains unconfirmed. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts said they don’t expect major shifts in housing policy, a key driver of steel demand.

However, the analysts anticipate policymakers will reiterate goals around managing industrial capacity and cracking down on so-called anti-involution, or excessive, unproductive competition within the industry.

Iron ore futures fell 1.02% to $103.20 at 11:00 a.m. in Singapore, and were down nearly 1% on the week. Yuan-priced futures on the Dalian exchange declined 1.4% while Shanghai steel futures fell.

© 2025 Bloomberg

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