More than 300,000 people have been displaced by an Islamic State insurgency in Mozambique since July, amid growing fears that authorities lack a workable plan to end the fighting.
With wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan attracting more attention and foreign aid falling, the grinding conflict in Mozambique has been largely ignored or forgotten. More than 1 million people have been displaced, many of them two, three or even four times.
Neither the Mozambican army nor a Rwandan intervention have managed to quell the insurgency, which has ravaged northern Mozambique since October 2017, when militants from Islamic State-Mozambique, an affiliate of the main IS group in the Middle East, carried out their first attacks, in Mocímboa da Praia in Cabo Delgado province in the north-east.
The group drew global attention in March 2021 with an attack on the town of Palma. More than 600 people were killed in the assault and the military’s subsequent recapturing of the town, according to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, a non-profit conflict monitor, including foreign workers on a multibillion-dollar Total liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.
Rwanda, whose military is better equipped and trained than Mozambique’s, deployed 1,000 troops to Cabo Delgado in July 2021, initially pushing back the militants. Rwanda now has an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 military personnel in the country.
However, violence against civilians has never fully abated and has increased this year, according to Acled.
More than 100,000 people were displaced in November alone, according to the International Organization for Migration, after Mozambican and Rwandan operations pushed IS fighters south, where the insurgents made their furthest incursion yet into Nampula province.
At the end of November, more than 350,000 people had been displaced, up from to 240,000 a year earlier.
Tomás Queface, a researcher for the independent conflict monitor Acled, said the insurgents had been “very audacious”, adding that Rwandan and Mozambican forces were not as “effective as they used to be … The Rwandans are not doing patrols like they used to do.
“And more importantly, the government wants the Mozambican forces to take the lead in the conflict and then Rwanda stays in the back,” he said.
So far this year, Acled has recorded 549 deaths in 302 attacks, more than half of them civilians. The civilian death toll, at 290, is already 56% higher than last year. Since 2017, almost 2,800 civilians have been killed, 80% by IS and more than 9% by Mozambican forces.
Mozambique’s president, Daniel Chapo, who took office in January after hundreds of people were killed by security forces following disputed elections, told Al Jazeera in September that he wanted dialogue with the insurgents.
Borges Nhamirre, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, a South African thinktank, said dialogue – including with communities in the underdeveloped region – was the key to resolving the conflict.
But he was sceptical: “Most important is not what politicians say but what politicians do. After eight years … there are no effective initiatives of dialogue.”
He said much of the military effort was focused on securing the estimated $20bn LNG project, which Total said in October it would resume once it received government approval.
Nhamirre said: “First you need to ask what [objective] the Rwandan and Mozambican forces had. If it is to guarantee human security, then we can say that they have failed … But if the objective is to secure the LNG project, then they have achieved some success … The LNG project is definitely more secure than in 2021.”
Meanwhile, IS has been abducting children for forced labour, marriage, or to fight. In June, Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported that there had been sharp increase in such kidnappings.
Sheila Nhancale, a researcher for HRW, said: “The displacement that is happening now is also increasing the risk of sexual violence, exploitation and abuse, particularly for women and children. Of the 100,000 displaced [in November], 70,000 are children.”
People forced to flee are also facing shrinking support. Donors have given $195m to the humanitarian response this year – only 55% of the estimated need – compared with $246m last year, according to the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Sebastián Traficante, the head of operations for Médecins Sans Frontières in Mozambique, said displaced people “have to stay in places with very poor conditions, with very poor access to basic services … that are already affected by eight years of conflict.
“They just want this to end. They just want to be able to go back to their homes, to do their farming – they want to have a normal life.”
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