Coal Demand to begin gradual decline through 2030, IEA says

Global coal use has hit a ceiling and is set to begin a slow decline over the next five years as renewables and liquefied natural gas gain ground, the International Energy Agency said.

Demand is expected to edge up 0.5% this year to a record 8,845 million tons before slipping 3% by 2030, according to the IEA’s annual coal report published Wednesday.

Analysts have long struggled to call peak coal, given stubbornly strong consumption in China and India even as advanced economies shutter mines and ramp up solar and wind. The IEA underscores the uncertainty, warning that its five-year outlook “is subject to significant uncertainties that could impact it materially.”

Much of the challenge calling peak coal comes down to China, which makes up more than half of global consumption. While the IEA sees a slight decrease in the nation’s demand over the next five years, “lower renewable energy dispatch or an acceleration in coal gasification projects could turn the slight drop into a small increase,” it said.

In the US, coal use is set to jump 8% in 2025 as higher gas prices and slower coal-plant retirements, aided by federal policy support, interrupt a 15-year trend of roughly 6% annual declines.

© 2025 Bloomberg

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