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SIMON BROWN: I’m chatting with Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. Wandile, always appreciate the time. I want to start off looking back, but let’s start with foot-and-mouth disease and, perhaps more importantly, the plan to vaccinate the entire herd. I’m not sure what the phraseology is for foot-and-mouth. It’s a huge task, but a massive milestone for the industry potentially.
WANDILE SIHLOBO: Yes, it’s massive, Simon, because if you look at the South African farming economy, about half of it is livestock – and mainly cattle. So whenever we’re struggling with these diseases the impact tends to be felt across the industry. Our national herd of cattle is about 12 million, and of course, about 7.2 million of that is in commercial production.
The logistics of getting through all of this, but also ensuring that we have sufficient vaccine supply, are aspects that will be difficult. But vaccination has started in some of the other areas and is continuing. I think this is going to be a momentous task. Remember, it’s not going to happen in just one year. It will be probably two or three years until we are completely clean.
SIMON BROWN: Twelve million – that is a giant number. But does it mean that in a couple of years’ time, once you’ve vaccinated the entire herd, will foot-and-mouth then be something behind us as a country?
WANDILE SIHLOBO: It will certainly be behind us, especially if we put in place strict controls after that. Remember, food-and-mouth disease in general comes from buffaloes, which means from the wild animal side. So with the movement of livestock – especially in those provinces that border on some of the wildlife reserves – we need to be careful. But also on the borders up north we need to make sure there are no cattle crossing from either Zimbabwe or any other country without our making sure that our borders are correct.
So it’s almost like a task that the Department of Agriculture carries out, but not Public Works in as far as the general fencing. They do their part to collaborate here. And the police.
SIMON BROWN: Yes, gotcha. I was chatting with Gary Arnold from Astral Foods on their last set of results. We’re moving forward with vaccinating chickens. He said at the time that they’d done only about 5% of their flock. But, just as results came out, they had permission for potentially doing another 30%. Again, it’s important because avian flu sort of pops up and decimates the industry for a while.
WANDILE SIHLOBO: Absolutely. You’ll remember the stories of the potential shortages of eggs in 2023. Those were all of the challenges. And, unlike foot-and-mouth, avian influenza has a much more difficult impact as one’s stock may die in the process. So vaccinating and making sure that you are in place is a good approach.
Importantly, Simon, we’re not the first country to actually do this in cattle. If you think about Brazil and Argentina, they’ve been down this path – like many others when it comes to poultry. We’ve seen since 2014 that the occurrence of these diseases is much more rapid nowadays. So all of this pushes us to a situation where we have to actually vaccinate in order to ensure that our livestock and agriculture in general is on a healthy footing.
SIMON BROWN: Yes, absolutely. I take your point on that.
Let’s touch on tariffs. Agoa as I understand is essentially over. But the US has removed tariffs on some products that are going from South Africa to the US. What is our current status, notwithstanding it could change quickly? Where are we right now with the tariff scenario?
WANDILE SIHLOBO: Look, Liberation Day tariff was 30%. And of course with the Agoa reprieve, we were able to stick at that number. Now, in the absence of Agoa, South Africa, as a basic start before you apply the Liberation Day tariffs, has a base tariff of about 3.4% if you look at the average most favoured nations approach. That means without an Agoa our tariffs would raise to, on average, about 33.4% that we would face in the US, instead of just the 30% of Liberation Day tariffs.
But the positive offset is the fact that today there is still no formal communication coming out of the US as to where Agoa is. I would almost say that Agoa remains, as of December 2025, really in a state of limbo until the US administration provides us with guidance. If then we are not included, we will be at the 33.4%. If we are included, we remain with these Liberation Day tariffs.
The US market is important of course for South Africa; all the more so for our friends in the auto industry and many others. But in farming that is about 4% of our farming exports. So far we’ve been able to see solid activity to the US. Farmers took advantage of the 90-day pause to the extent that in Q2 we saw that our agricultural exports to the US were up significantly, with SA exporting about 26% year on year.
And then in the third quarter we saw that they had cooled off a little, 10% from what we had seen in the previous quarter.
So, all in all I think the numbers will still look fairly good when we have the full-year data.
SIMON BROWN: It can’t be easy, but is there potential, if the tariff remains at plus-30%, to find other markets? It’s easy for me to sit here and suggest that. I imagine it’s a challenge, but it must be something industry is looking at. I know the minister has been to Asia, he’s been to a couple of places, looking for markets for some of our agri products.
WANDILE SIHLOBO: I think what we are blessed with is that South African agriculture exports in general are pretty diverse. We have 50% into the African continent or so, and then you have about 21% into the EU. Then you have Asia and the Middle East, among others.
The key thing then is about how you increase the volume to some of these markets. Asia and the Middle East remain very attractive because of their potential upside in building those markets while Africa and the EU are more about maintaining what we have. So the effort is there. But of course, as you say, it’s not overnight because there are relationships there, and there’s a reason the folks in the Citrusdal export a lot to the US. So there are all of those things.
But nonetheless, the diversification strategy and the conversation around that is underway and it’s something that we must power through, regardless of what happens in tariffs, because we still have so much production that will be coming up in from the farms in coming years. We will be looking and saying, where do we export all of these products? Diversification lays the foundation for that.
SIMON BROWN: Gotcha. How is 2026 looking – particularly in terms of rain. I’m in Joburg, and we’ve got lots of rain. The Vaal Dam is full, but of course we’ve a much broader country than that. What are indications for next year’s crop season?
WANDILE SIHLOBO: Well, 2026 is looking to be an excellent season. Yes, 2025 was good. We were supported by La Niña rains which delivered record crops. Soybeans had a record crop. Maize delivered the second largest crop on record, and in fruits and vegetables we had a really excellent harvest. We think that going into next year we will continue with momentum – all the more as farmers are also increasing the area they plant.
And I think the performance of the sector will be even stronger because vaccination would have been underway for long, supporting the cattle industry. That will give us a much more solid recovery than in 2025, which we call an uneven recovery when one looks on a sectoral basis.
SIMON BROWN: I get your point and I suppose there are many moving parts here. Record crops mean prices potentially coming down, but the truth is you’ve got a record crop. Farmers have also got the benefit of diesel prices being lower than in previous years. So it’s a good time to be a farmer at this point.
WANDILE SIHLOBO: A good time, depending on what commodity you are in.
SIMON BROWN: Ah, yes.
WANDILE SIHLOBO: But I would say, all things considered, we’re still in a really reasonably good period in South African agriculture. That’s for 2025. And I think we will continue momentum going into next year. And of course for the consumer, we think that even the moderating food-price inflation is a theme that will continue going into next year.
SIMON BROWN: Okay. Good news as well. We’ll leave that there. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, I appreciate the time.
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