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The US is ramping up pressure on South Africa over its ties to Russia, China and Iran, as well as its accusations of genocide against Israel brought before the International Court of Justice in 2023.
Despite efforts to smooth out these wrinkles, the US continues to apply pressure on SA, leading to fears this could escalate into something more serious – such as sanctions against specific ANC officials and, what many consider the ‘nuclear option, placing restrictions on South Africa’s access to SWIFT, the international messaging system used by banks.
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Someone who has been keeping an eye on this is Faadil Moti, CEO and founder of payments company and crypto services provider 80eight.
“We are seeing increased pressure from the US. Revoking [former foreign affairs minister] Naledi Pandor’s US visa is a strong diplomatic signal. It suggests a shift towards personal, targeted pressure and that’s usually how it starts.
“It’s not about sanctioning the country right away. It looks more like political isolation, weakening the international positioning of South Africa,” he says.
“The US is signalling its discomfort with South Africa’s global alignments, particularly with regards to Russia, China, and even [on] the Gaza issue. And the financial world watches these signs very closely.
“So a SWIFT ban or a visa ban today could lead to asset freezes or even blocked funds or blocked access tomorrow.
“Historically, this is how sanctions are sequenced. First, they are diplomatic, targeted at politicians, then financial. But what I can say is that South Africa is resilient. This is also a moment to build stronger bridges with our allies in the East and create redundancy in our financial infrastructure.
“In short, we do expect more noise, likely against individuals in certain sectors, but the smart move is to prepare, not panic.”
There are alternatives to SWIFT, such as China’s CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System), while Russia’s got its own SPFS system – both of them designed to circumvent the increasingly politicised SWIFT network.
However, can we rely on these alternatives to fill the gap if SWIFT is throttled? Steps are already underway to prepare for such an eventuality, adds Moti.
CIPS is gaining traction, and one of SA’s major banks has already integrated it for trade with China.
“These alternatives are real. They’re designed to bypass US-dominated rails. They may be a bit slower and more regional for now, but the adoption is growing, especially among the Brics nations. And South African banks are proactively exploring this, like we’ve recently seen.
“So that tells you it’s not a theoretical exercise. It’s a defensive infrastructure play. Plus, big players like Mastercard are building stablecoin-compatible backend rails.
“And I think the next evolution may not just be CIPS versus SWIFT. It may be blockchain versus both,” says Moti.
“The smarter institutions aren’t waiting to be cut off. They’re obviously diversifying their flow paths today in order to remain consistent and to remain in business.”
The big shift in crypto in 2025
There are ways to bypass the banking system using stablecoins and bitcoin’s Lightning Network, offering near instant 24/7 transactional capability at very low costs. There’s payment networks like Wise, RippleNet, Revolut, PayPal and others. The market is opening up at an accelerating rate.
We should not expect to see a titanic struggle between banks and blockchain. What we are seeing is convergence between the two systems.
Increasingly, banks are adopters and keen users of blockchain rails because these are faster and cheaper than their traditional systems.
A big shift in 2025 was the warming of the banks to crypto.
“At 80eight we see this first-hand. Banks are now open to collaboration, especially with regard to stablecoins and infrastructure, because fintechs like us bring innovation wrapped in compliance. And with more regulation, I think the future is hybrid. Regulated fintechs operating across decentralised and traditional rails are going to become more apparent and banks are going to be part of the fold,” says Moti.
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What’s in store for 2026
Moti goes on to talk about the softening approach of regulators to crypto, a trend he expects to accelerate in 2026.
“I think crypto is no longer the outsider. It’s the infrastructure behind the new financial services. Also, we saw massive growth in tokenised assets, yield-bearing stablecoins, and Shariah-compliant fintech as well. That shift towards real-world utilities is the headline of 2025.”
More banks are likely to offer crypto to their clients in 2026.
“I think 2026 will be about stablecoin infrastructure, embedded finance, and potentially maybe even programmable payments becoming normal.
“Cross-border payments will accelerate via non-SWIFT alternatives like what we have with stablecoins [with] stronger regulation around that, hopefully something from the SA Reserve Bank. [And] yield-bearing stablecoins and tokenised saving products will emerge in regulated wrappers.
“And crypto won’t be the lead narrative. It will be embedded in everyday fintech tools, B2B [business-to-business] flows, and treasury systems.
“For South Africa, we’ll likely see further crypto regulation clarity and I think our goal is to sit right at the intersection of value compliance and the user experience as well.”
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