Sub-Saharan Africa set to outpace global growth

Africa’s reform momentum, supported by resilient external inflows and firming commodity prices, is driving a robust macroeconomic recovery across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

In its Global Focus – Economic Outlook 2026, Standard Chartered Global Research projects SSA growth of around 4.3% in 2026, up from 4.0% in 2025 – outpacing the global average of 3.4% and underscoring the region’s growing resilience.

The report highlights that SSA economies are still less exposed to international trade frictions, with diversified export corridors and strong links to Europe and China cushioning the impact of shifting tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty.

Economies leading the growth

The key economies in SSA are shaping a positive growth outlook. South Africa is poised for a sustained recovery, with growth forecast at 2.0% in 2026, supported by looser monetary policy, a revival in private-sector lending, and reforms in energy and logistics.

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Meanwhile, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Ethiopia continue on robust growth paths, benefiting from political stability, increased investment in agro-processing and extractive industries, and progress in debt restructuring.

“Africa is entering a period of structural strengthening,” says Razia Khan, head of research, Africa and Middle East at Standard Chartered.

“Countries like Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa are moving beyond stabilisation to growth acceleration, supported by fiscal discipline, banking-sector reforms, and renewed investor confidence. The continent is benefitting from high gold prices and resilient commodity demand, creating room for monetary easing and stronger private-sector credit.”

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Reforms in action

In Nigeria, reforms such as the liberalisation of foreign exchange and the removal of fuel subsidies are expected to drive projected real GDP growth of 4.0%. This growth will be primarily led by non-oil sectors and a recapitalised banking system, which is preparing for a regulatory deadline in March 2026, supporting an increase in private-sector credit.

In Ghana and Kenya, efforts to clear domestic arrears and normalise government payments are expected to reduce non-performing loans, strengthening the banking sectors’ capacity to finance growth.

Ghana is making progress under its International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, reducing public debt to 45% of GDP and launching a targeted infrastructure initiative to spur long-term development.

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The report highlights that successful engagement with the IMF has anchored several African economies – including Ghana, Kenya and Senegal – supporting fiscal consolidation, rebuilding reserves, and reinforcing policy credibility in the eyes of investors.

Outside these large economies, growth is expected to remain broad-based across the continent.

East Africa stands out as a regional growth hub, with Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda forecast to expand by more than 5% in 2026, supported by resilient domestic demand and continued investment in infrastructure and energy.

In Zambia, ongoing reforms and efforts to reduce inflation are creating opportunities for stronger and more sustainable growth.

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The report highlights the increasing resilience of the region, pointing to rising foreign exchange reserves in Ghana, Uganda, and Zambia, which are driven by higher gold prices and stronger exports. Current account balances are also improving, with Nigeria expected to achieve a surplus of 4.6% of its GDP by 2026.

Additionally, lower oil prices are contributing to disinflation, enabling cuts to policy rates in Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia.

Investor confidence

“Investors are noticing,” added Emmanuel Kwapong, economist for Africa at Standard Chartered.

“Portfolio inflows have increased, and sovereign spreads continue to tighten. With deepening reforms and structural bottlenecks being addressed, Africa’s 2026 growth story won’t just be about recovery – it’s about transformation.”

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Standard Chartered Global Research expects this improvement in sentiment to be reflected in capital-market activity. With tightening spreads and advancing policy reforms, Sub-Saharan African sovereigns are likely to return to the Eurobond market in 2026, opening more funding channels for infrastructure and social investment.

Madhur Jha, global economist and head of thematic research, added: “Although the global 2026 growth outlook is positive, there are still risks, including political tensions, important elections, ongoing conflicts and new alliances challenging the US-led global system”.

Global headwinds

For African policymakers, these global headwinds require discipline.

The report warns that lower oil prices, while helping to reduce inflation, could hurt the external positions of some oil-exporting countries, and that countries without strong policy anchors or IMF programmes may face constrained access to external financing.

To support growth, it is essential to focus on reform momentum and prudent fiscal management.

Additionally, advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) may enhance productivity more quickly than expected, contributing to global economic growth.

While further reductions in tariffs are unlikely, global trade could continue to thrive as more countries set up trade partnerships and share the resulting benefits.

Razia Khan is head of research, Africa and Middle East at Standard Chartered.

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