Gold climbs near record on haven flows and US rate cut bets

Gold rose for a fifth day, supported by bets on a dovish US Federal Reserve and a pullback from technology stocks seen as risky after bold spending on AI.

Bullion climbed as much as 1.1% to within $40 of an all-time high, on its longest winning streak since the run-up to that October record. Asian shares fell on Monday, with global risk appetite ebbing as doubts grow over the ability of tech companies to maintain their lofty valuations and heavy spending on artificial intelligence. This has added to gold’s haven appeal in the last full trading week of the year.

Gold bulls are also betting on further monetary easing in the US next year after the Fed delivered its third straight interest-rate cut rate last week. Lower borrowing costs are typically a tailwind for non-yielding precious metals like gold and silver.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday, President Donald Trump called for aggressively lowering rates and said he expected the next Fed chair to consult with him on monetary policy. He named Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as his top choices to succeed Jerome Powell.

Gold has surged over 65% this year and silver has more than doubled, with both metals on track for their best annual performances since 1979. The scorching rallies have been underpinned by increased central-bank buying and a retreat by investors from sovereign bonds and currencies. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds have risen every month this year except May, according to the World Gold Council.

“We still expect continued central-bank buying, alongside private investor flows under Fed easing, to lift gold prices to $4,900 by end-2026,” analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. including Lina Thomas said in a note. Elevated accumulation by central banks was “a multiyear trend,” they said, reiterating a forecast for average monthly purchases of 70 tons in 2026.

Bullion faces a year of two halves in 2026, peaking near $4 800 before the end of the second quarter before retreating, ANZ Group Holdings analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes said in a note. They also cited “resilient” investment flows and central-bank buying as supportive factors for the precious metal.

Silver, meanwhile, has been bolstered in recent weeks by speculative bets on lingering supply tightness after a historic squeeze in October. The white metal — which hit a record of $64.6573 an ounce on Friday — will continue to find support from a market deficit, as well as resilient industrial demand and uncertainty around US import policy, the ANZ note said.

The US Geological Survey added silver to its critical minerals list last month, meaning traders are cautious about taking silver out of America in the event that import tariffs are later imposed. The ANZ analysts said they expected silver to be excluded from tariffs, with confirmation of such a decision likely to prompt outflows of the metal and ease tightness.

Gold gained 1% to trade at $4 342.90 an ounce as of 3:20 p.m. in Singapore, close to a record of $4 381.52 in late October. Silver gained 2.1% to reach $63.29, recouping almost all of its losses on Friday. Platinum jumped as much as 3.2% to its highest since September 2011, and palladium also rose. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.1%.

© 2025 Bloomberg

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