SNP falls short in poll showing new Reform surge – Daily Business

The SNP could fall well short of a majority in the new parliament, according to a poll suggesting more constituencies are closer than previous forecasts.

The MRP poll by More in Common found 39 of the 73 constituency seats are now considered marginal.

It sees the SNP being returned as the largest party, but with only 56 seats, far fewer than the 65 required for a majority.

Reform UK has seen a resurgence of support in Scotland that could see it win its first constituency.

Nigel Farage’s party is on course to edge out Labour in second place, while the Greens could also win their first constituency seat on 7 May.

The poll suggests Reform UK would finish in second place on 22 seats, ahead of Scottish Labour on 17. Reform UK would defeat the SNP in Ayr and Banffshire and Buchan Coast. Both of these seats were amongst the smallest majorities of any MSP at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.

If the findings were repeated on pollling day it would enable the unionist parties to combine and lock the nationalists out of government.

However, among the unionist parties, only the Liberal Democrats have indicated a willingness to work with other parties. Its leader Alex Cole-Hamilton told Daily Business that Labour had “a vision of change I could get on board with.”

The poll suggests the LibDems would finish in fourth place on 14 seats, including eight constituency wins.

The Scottish Conservatives would fall to just 12 seats, followed by the Scottish Greens on eight. The poll predicts the Greens would win their first two constituencies in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill, and Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith.

Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, said: “Having been in power for almost two decades, the SNP are clearly suffering from the curse of incumbency that has afflicted governments around the world.

“Although they look set to maintain power in Holyrood it will almost certainly be with significantly diminished vote share and this model estimates a lower seat count too.

“The SNP benefit however from a further fragmentation of the unionist vote with Reform UK emerging as the strongest unionist party and official opposition as Farage finally breaks through north of the border.”