Donald Trump changed his mind on supporting the Chagos Islands deal because the UK will not permit its airbases to be used for a pre-emptive US strike on Iran, the Guardian has been told.
In his latest change of heart on the deal, the US president said on social media that Keir Starmer was “making a big mistake” by handing sovereignty of the islands to Mauritius in exchange for continued use by the UK and US of their airbase on one of the islands, Diego Garcia.
While Trump had previously criticised the plan, which is backed by the US state department, earlier in February he had described it as the “best” deal Starmer could make in the circumstances.
But in Trump’s post on his own Truth Social site he linked the deal with US military strikes against Iran in connection with Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, which are believed to be imminent. He wrote: “Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime.”
A pre-emptive strike on Iran would be unlikely to be in line with the UK’s interpretation of international law. US bases in the UK, like Fairford in Gloucestershire, the home for US B-2 bombers in Europe, are only used for military operations if the UK government agrees and they are considered legal.
UK government sources said this was viewed as the reason for Trump to again turn against the Chagos plan.
On Tuesday night, Starmer and Trump spoke in a conversation that covered the situation in Iran, although the Downing Street readout of the call made no mention of the Chagos plan.
The hope in No 10 is that Trump will again change his mind. The bill setting out the Chagos agreement is due to return to the House of Lords soon.
There has been speculation that the bill, which is nearing its final stages but was delayed last month amid continued uncertainty about the US position, might have returned to the Lords next week. However, it is now not expected for several weeks.
Under parliamentary rules, if it is not passed before the end of the current parliamentary session in May, the bill would have to be presented again.
One former government official who worked closely on the deal said he was concerned it might be scuppered. Ben Judah, who was until recently a special adviser to David Lammy, the former foreign secretary, told a Sun podcast: “It’s looking tricky for the government to get this deal through in the weeks and month ahead.”
The Conservatives are continuing to push the Trump administration to block the plan, which Downing Street has said can only go ahead with US buy-in.
The shadow foreign secretary, Priti Patel, is giving a speech in Washington DC next week, and is expected to hold talks with US officials about the Chagos plan.
In a statement, Patel said the deal was “now dead in the water”, adding: “It’s impossible for the deal to proceed without the support of our American allies, and Labour will soon run out of time to put anything before parliament.”
A government spokesperson said: “As routine, we do not comment on operational matters. There is a political process ongoing between the US and Iran, which the UK supports. Iran must never be able to develop a nuclear weapon, and our priority is security in the region.”
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