A majority of Scottish voters say Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar was right to call for Sir Keir Starmer to resign, though it would only persuade a small minority to vote for the party in May.
In the first poll on voter reaction to his controversial decision, 52% supported Mr Sarwar’s stand against the Prime Minister against 26% who felt he had made the wrong choice.
However, there was no indication that it would help Labour win the Holyrood election in May, with only 17% of Scottish voters intending to back Labour with their constituency vote and second regional ballot in the Holyrood elections.
The findings would suggest that approval for Mr Sarwar’s decision is more about his standing up to an unpopular Prime Minister rather than offering support for Scottish Labour.
Sir Keir now has an approval rating of minus 47 in Scotland and just 15% of voters believe he is doing a good job.
According to the Norstat poll, published by The Sunday Times, six in ten voters say Mr Sarwar’s rebellion will make no difference to the likelihood that they will vote Labour. Only 15% said it had made them more likely to back the party.
His loyalists insist the poll shows that Mr Sarwar is winning over voters. Deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “This poll demonstrates that Anas Sarwar was right to be honest with Scots and they have responded positively to that.”
Professor Sir John Curtice, Britain’s leading pollster, took a more downbeat view, telling the newspaper that his call for Sir Keir to resign “may have even made things worse”.
He said: “Crucially, for the first time, slightly more (33%) of those who voted Labour in 2024 now believe Sarwar is doing a bad job as Labour’s Scottish leader than feel he is doing a good one (30%).
“Sarwar’s attempt on Monday to escape seemingly inevitable defeat in May has, it seems, left him, if anything, in an even weaker position to turn things around.”
According to Sir John’s seat projections, the SNP is on course to emerge with 60 of 129 seats, five short of the majority that First Minister John Swinney has said would be a mandate for another independence referendum.
The SNP is on 35% in the constituency vote and 30%in the regional list, well down on the 2021 result.
Reform UK is eating into support for both Labour and the Conservatives, while some polls also show it taking votes from the SNP. It is on course to secure 22 seats, while Labour would have just 16 MSPs, a record low, if the results of the poll were repeated on election day.
Only 27% feel the SNP has performed well in government since 2021, while 42% think it has done a bad job.
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