Economists see three more SA rate cuts

The  South African Reserve Bank will likely cut interest rates three more times before ending its current easing cycle, according to a survey.

Most of the 14 economists canvassed by Bloomberg, including those at Morgan Stanley, UBS Group AG and BNP Paribas SA, see scope for the central bank to lower borrowing costs three more times by 25 basis points each, to 6%. That would bring to an end its rate-cutting cycle that began in September 2024 and has so far delivered cumulative reductions of 1.5 percentage points, they forecast.

BNP sees the cuts being completed by September and UBS and Morgan Stanley by the first quarter of 2027. The central bank’s own model signals room for a further 75 basis points of easing by 2027.

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“If all the disinflation impulses remain intact, including the stronger rand, there could be scope to deliver these 75 basis points of interest-rate cuts even quicker,” said Elna Moolman, head of South Africa macroeconomic research at Standard Bank Group Ltd.

More rate reductions would support an economy that has stagnated for more than a decade, likely boosting household consumption expenditure, which accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic product.

The central bank’s monetary policy committee left the benchmark rate at 6.75% on Jan. 29, citing global uncertainty and risks from higher food and electricity prices, even as it lowered its inflation forecast to 3.3%, closer to its new 3% target.

Factors supporting lower inflation include the rand’s more than 3% appreciation this year as the dollar weakened and gold and platinum — key exports — rallied, as well as oil prices averaging about $66 a barrel, close to the central bank’s 2026 assumption.

“We maintain that a majority on the MPC favours a more patient approach to policy recalibration under the SARB’s new 3% inflation target,” BNP’s Jeffrey Schultz and Lior Kohanan said in a note last month. “We stick to our call for a quarterly pace of 25 basis point cuts in 2026 and a terminal rate of 6% reached by the end of the third quarter.”

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Goldman Sachs Group and Nedbank Group are among the outliers, forecasting seven and four 25-basis-point cuts, respectively.

Goldman’s dovish view is based on its outlook for lower inflation.

“We maintain our forecast for rate cuts at alternating MPC meetings down to a 5% terminal rate reached in early 2028,” Andrew Matheny, an economist at the investment bank, said in a note.

© 2026 Bloomberg

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