Angus Taylor is expected to challenge Sussan Ley for the Liberal leadership within days, according to supporters who argue “something has to change” after a horror opinion poll and the chaos of the Coalition split.
While no decision has been made, conservative MPs believe it is a matter of when, not if, Taylor brings on a leadership vote this week after the latest Newspoll showed the Coalition’s primary vote had collapsed to a historic low of 18% – nine percentage points behind Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.
A spill is considered unlikely on Tuesday because Liberal senators won’t attend the regular party room meeting due to estimates hearings.
That leaves Thursday night or Friday morning as the most likely option for a special meeting to vote on a change of leadership.
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Ley was defiant on Monday morning when asked if her job was safe.
“Yes it is,” she told Sky News, adding she wasn’t expecting a spill this week.
Liberal frontbencher and Ley ally, Alex Hawke, said he was “adamant my colleagues fully support their leader”.
Taylor would first need to resign from the shadow cabinet before supporting a spill motion and contesting the leadership.
Ley’s leadership has been viewed as terminal since the Nationals leader, David Littleproud, blew up the Coalition late last month after a split over hate speech laws.
The two parties agreed to reunite on Sunday after both leaders conceded on their previously red-line demands.
Guardian Australia reported some MPs believed Ley’s concessions had damaged her credibility and potentially shifted crucial undecided votes into Taylor’s column, even though the shadow defence minister had pushed for a reunion.
Ley defeated Taylor 29 votes to 25 in the post-election leadership ballot with the support of a Coalition of moderate, centre-right and unaligned MPs.
Several conservative MPs, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the prospect of a spill this week had increased dramatically after The Australian published the latest Newspoll results late on Sunday night.
“It will happen, it is just a case of timing,” one said. Another Taylor supporter said: “Something has to change”.
In a significant intervention, Liberal senator, Jane Hume, warned the party would be “wiped out” without an urgent change in direction.
The former frontbencher said she was not pushing to remove Ley but stressed that she wanted “something to change”.
“My message to my leaders is that if you have a rabbit in your hat, it’s time to reach for that bunny, because we cannot continue this way,” she told Sky News.
The Victorian senator is from the moderate faction but supported the conservative Taylor in the previous ballot, which was viewed as one of the main reasons why Ley dumped her to the backbench.
While the moderates remain firmly behind Ley, Guardian Australia understands the severity of the Newspoll result and the inevitability of a spill has prompted the first genuine discussions about how the faction might salvage something from a leadership change.
Hume and fellow moderates Goldstein MP, Tim Wilson, Flinders MP Zoe McKenzie, have been mentioned internally as possible options for deputy leader.
One of Ley’s internal critics, Victorian Liberal Sarah Henderson, told Sky News the party faced “a true crisis”.
“I think every Liberal member and senator needs to consider these matters very quickly, this week,” she said.
Henderson would not be drawn on the difficulty of rolling the first female opposition leader.
“I am just going to say that things need to change,” she said.
“I say this with a very heavy heart, but we do need to make some significant changes, and we do need to rebuild the faith of the Australian people. I am confident we can do that, but we’ve got to change direction.”
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