The DA’s bid to broaden its appeal

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JEREMY MAGGS: The Democratic Alliance (DA) is entering a critical moment. Party leader John Steenhuisen announced earlier in the week that he will not seek another term. His exit has opened up a crowded five-way contest for the DA’s top job. I think it raises big questions about unity and direction, though, as far as the party is concerned.

Let’s discuss that in a little more detail. Political commentator and writer Richard Calland from the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership. Richard, a very warm welcome. Let’s dive straight in and start with the moment that we’re in. Why do you think John Steenhuisen had to go and why now?

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RICHARD CALLAND: Well, I think in the end he was found out by the job. If you are a national-level politician leading a party that wants to be a serious contender for national power, you have to have the skills and the attributes necessary for that task.

South Africa is a complex, difficult, tough electoral market and I don’t think he had the diversity of skills and the ability to connect with different audiences that you need, particularly if you’re trying to build your electoral support and escape the entrapment of your base, which is one of the predicaments I think the DA faces at this moment.

Having said that, and I’ve been pretty critical of Steenhuisen’s leadership over a period of time, I do think he deserves credit for two things. One, for getting out now.

It’s not easy to give up power. He was pushed, but nonetheless he chose to go in an elegant fashion.

Secondly, he did work with the ANC (African National Congress) to build a strong, stable and increasingly stable government at the centre, and I think he deserves credit for that.

JEREMY MAGGS: Who do you think pushed him?

RICHARD CALLAND: Well, I think a variety of folks within the party came to the realisation that he didn’t have the right skills for the job, that he was flawed. There were mistakes made in recent times and the knives were out for him.

Politics is a cruel sport. In the end, there were people around who I think recognised it was time for a different leader. We can discuss who that is in a moment.

But in the end, it’s obvious that Helen Zille, the veteran DA leader, continues as federal chair to exercise and wield real power in that party, and I think that she would have formed a view about this. That view, she must express it for herself, but I think her view was that it was time for a change.

JEREMY MAGGS: So, as I mentioned, it’s been described as a five-horse race for succession. Who do you think are the serious contenders and who at this point is in the best position to win?

RICHARD CALLAND: Well, I think the smart money is on Geordin Hill-Lewis, the mayor of Cape Town. For a long time, certainly my position and the view of other analysts, I think some other analysts at least, was that Steenhuisen would only go if he was pushed, first of all.

The only person really who could push him or at least trigger the pushing would be if Geordin Hill-Lewis said, I’m up for it. I’m ready for it.

He clearly has indicated that and he’s not hiding his ambition now.

He says it must be a contest, and he will wait for the moment when the internal electoral process starts. But he’s clearly ready and up for it.

He’s relatively young and he could have bided his time, but I think he recognised, and Zille recognised, that this is a critical moment for the DA.

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The ANC is in freefall. It’s in real trouble. It’s going from an era of great leaders, big leaders like Ramaphosa, Mbeki and Mandela and so on, it’s going down a level. It’s going down into the second division, so to speak, and it will have second division leadership, and its support is draining from it. So that’s the moment where if you’re an opposition party, you have to really seize that moment and go in for the kill.

JEREMY MAGGS: Let me ask you two questions about Geordin Hill-Lewis. One is he’s very keen for the job, but he does want to stay on as mayor of Cape Town. Is that an issue? And perhaps more broadly, does the DA at this point need another white male leading it?

RICHARD CALLAND: I think the questions, let me take them in reverse order. I don’t think that race is critical. I think it’s important. Obviously, in this country, race still plays a very important part, but I think that there is a mood amongst the electorate, supported by some data, that actually people just want government to work and function properly, that there aren’t big ideological disputes at the moment.

What they need is someone who can prove that he or she can govern well and effectively and solve problems. And secondly, who can connect with a range of supporters.

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Now Geordin Hill-Lewis has in his favour a commendable track record as mayor of Cape Town. Everyone accepts that it’s a generally well-run city and moreover, that he has, whether this has been matched by policy effectiveness or not, he has been able to connect to a range of constituencies in what is nonetheless a complex city demographically.

That ability to connect with voters, I think, is his greatest attribute. He’s an agile politician, and he has an agility and dexterity, which I think Steenhuisen lacks.

JEREMY MAGGS: Just in terms of where the DA finds itself right now, given that there is this flux at the top, what does this moment, Richard, say about the DA’s struggle to grow beyond its traditional voter base because that is singularly its biggest challenge right now? Surely.

RICHARD CALLAND: Indeed. You’re absolutely right, Jeremy. If one looks back at the last four elections and starts 10 years ago, and this is really the end of a 10-year transition phase for the DA, the DA was on the ascendant, it was on the rise in 2016. Under Mmusi Maimane, it got 26.9% of the national vote at that local government election, four million votes.

Then in 2019, it was hit by Ramaphoria. The old guard and the DA panicked, threw out Maimane.

It lost a lot of its black leadership, and it went backwards into its base and its corral.

It’s had to rebuild since then and Steenhuisen has been part of that rebuilding. So has Zille. She came back into office, as it were, behind the scenes as federal chair.

Now the big thing they have to accomplish is to find a political value proposition that is centralist, which appeals not just to their base but to new voters. Geordin Hill-Lewis or whoever becomes the next leader has got to make a choice. They cannot fudge this issue. They cannot say, well, we’re going to try and be nice to our base and build electoral support. They can’t do both.

They will have to risk losing some of their base, which is quite right-wing, quite conservative, both working-class coloured folks in the Western Cape and Afrikaner and right-wing white voters.

They’re going to have to risk that base, which is relatively small, in favour of building a bigger party, as Maimane was trying to do 10 years ago, that has black voters from the middle class and lower middle class, particularly in urban areas.

Jeremy, the reason why this election at the end of this year is so important an opportunity for them, in 2024 for the first time ever, the DA got more votes than the ANC in the eight metros, the eight biggest cities in the country.

So if the DA focuses on delivery in cities in those eight places, it can get a very good result in the local government election, but only if it offers a fresh value proposition that appeals to a wider number of voters.

JEREMY MAGGS: Richard Calland, thank you very much indeed.

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