SA’s reform success creates options in a disrupted global order

The World Economic Forum last week provided a prominent platform for South Africa to demonstrate that our reform story is delivering tangible results. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana led a delegation, including several ministers and senior business leaders, to Davos, where South Africa House on the main promenade hosted events showcasing South Africa’s progress to global investors. The message was fundamentally different from a year ago. While last year we delivered hope grounded in policy commitments, this year we could point to concrete achievements: exit from the FATF grey list, a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global, stable electricity supply after ending load shedding, and progress on logistics reforms, including the Durban port concession and private rail operators accessing Transnet’s network.

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As Minister Godongwana put it, the delegation returned not with promises, but with real successes. This credibility matters. When international investors assess country risk, delivery on commitments moves a country from “interesting potential” to “viable investment destination.” The 98% reduction in load shedding between 2023 and 2025, combined with improved fiscal discipline that has delivered consecutive primary budget surpluses, provides evidence that South Africa can execute complex reforms. Events at South Africa House allowed direct engagement with investors who are now reassessing their South Africa allocations based on this performance.

The Forum also announced that South Africa will host the spring edition of the WEF in April 2027. This continued international recognition reflects confidence in South Africa’s organisational capacity and our role in advancing African development and global economic cooperation. The 2027 event will provide an opportunity to advance initiatives launched at the G20 last year, particularly the Africa Engagement Framework, which coordinates action by major economies to support Africa’s integration into the global financial system.

But Davos this year will be remembered primarily for the global reckoning with disruption from the Trump administration. The threats toward Greenland, dismissive rhetoric about Nato and the United Nations, withdrawal from climate agreements, and sweeping tariff announcements have forced countries outside the great power triumvirate to reassess assumptions about the global economic order. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney captured the moment in his speech, calling for “middle powers” to forge closer relationships and pursue “value-based realism”, principled commitment to sovereignty and human rights, while pragmatically recognising that interests diverge and progress is often incremental.

For South Africa, this disruption creates both risk and opportunity. The risk is obvious: potential tariff barriers, disruption to established trading relationships and uncertainty about multilateral institutions all create headwinds for export-oriented growth. But the opportunity lies in leveraging our reform credibility to build partnerships on terms that serve South African interests, not simply accept whatever arrangements great powers dictate. Carney’s framework resonates because it describes what South Africa has pursued for decades, maintaining principled positions while pragmatically building relationships across ideological divides to advance our development agenda.

Practically, that means being strategic and selective about international partnerships, evaluating every trade agreement and investment opportunity against clear criteria: does it create quality employment in South Africa? Does it build our industrial capacity? Does it expand our export capabilities? Last week’s announcement that Chinese vehicle manufacturer Chery has agreed to acquire Nissan’s Rosslyn manufacturing facility near Pretoria illustrates the kind of foreign investment we should pursue. Rather than shuttering the plant, Chery is preserving several thousand manufacturing jobs and maintaining automotive production capacity that supports extensive supply chains. The company has indicated plans to use the facility for both domestic production and export to other African markets, potentially expanding employment over time.

Read: Chery to acquire Nissan’s Rosslyn plant in major SA auto shake-up

This stands in stark contrast to the challenges facing South African manufacturing that I’ve written about recently. Last week, I highlighted British American Tobacco’s closure of its last factory due to illicit trade destroying the legitimate cigarette market. The automotive sector more broadly faces pressure from cheap vehicle imports flooding the market. The distinction is critical: Chery is investing in South African manufacturing capacity – preserving jobs, maintaining industrial capability and potentially expanding production. This is fundamentally different from foreign companies simply using South Africa as a market for finished products manufactured elsewhere, which erodes our industrial base and costs jobs.

This distinction must guide our approach to international economic relationships. Not all investment is equal. Not all trade agreements serve our interests. We must evaluate partnerships, whether with the United States, Europe, China, or any other region, against consistent criteria focused on jobs, industrialisation and export-led growth.

We cannot choose between East and West; we must choose what advances South Africa’s development agenda while maintaining principled positions on sovereignty and international law.

The geopolitical disruption may accelerate opportunities to deepen relationships with other “middle powers” navigating similar challenges, such as Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and Vietnam, which are pursuing industrialisation while managing relationships with competing great powers. These relationships could open new export markets, create opportunities for technology transfer, and provide alternatives when traditional partners become unreliable or impose unfavourable terms. The work government did last year in forging new trading relationships, including expanded agricultural exports to new markets in Asia and the Middle East, provides a foundation. Business must engage actively in identifying opportunities and working with government to structure partnerships that deliver mutual benefit whilst protecting our industrial interests.

But international positioning alone won’t create jobs.

We must continue the domestic reform agenda that has built the credibility we now enjoy. The electricity market must become genuinely competitive, with independent transmission and active trading. Logistics concessioning must accelerate across rail and ports. Local government performance must improve to provide reliable basic services. Criminal justice capacity must be strengthened to protect property rights and enforce contracts. These fundamentals determine whether international investors commit capital for the long term or simply seek short-term returns.

The conversations in Davos made clear that the global economic order is shifting in ways that create both uncertainty and opportunity. South Africa’s reform success has given us credibility and agency. We must use that position strategically – pursuing partnerships that serve our interests, protecting our industrial base, and maintaining the reform momentum that makes us attractive to the right kind of investment. Carney’s call for “middle powers” to shape their own futures resonates because South Africa has always understood this necessity. Now the global moment demands we act on it with renewed clarity and purpose.

Read: Has Team SA delivered in Davos?

Mavuso is CEO of BLSA. 

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