Andy Burnham may have a new route to parliament after the MP Andrew Gwynne reached a settlement with the Commons that would allow him to retire, which would trigger a byelection.
The mayor of Greater Manchester is said to be seeking a return to parliament to stand for the Labour leadership if there is a challenge to Keir Starmer, but was thought to have limited options for a byelection in the north-west.
Gwynne, the MP for Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester, had expressly denied planning early retirement. He was reported to have been seeking the settlement with the Commons pensions authorities but to have withdrawn the request in the autumn. Shortly afterwards, he said he planned to serve the full parliament.
But a senior source confirmed that the MP, who is suspended from the Labour party, had now been offered a deal on his MP’s pension that would allow him to retire on medical grounds.
Friends of the MP told the Guardian that he was all but certain to accept the agreement, under which he would receive a yearly payout until he reached retirement age, when he would be entitled to the full pension.
Gwynne is still subject to a parliamentary standards investigation, which was initiated last year after he was found to have been in a WhatsApp group – called Trigger Me Timbers – that shared vulgar and inflammatory comments about voters and other MPs. He was suspended from the party after the messages came to light.
The Manchester backbencher was said by some MPs to have reached an agreement with Burnham to allow the Greater Manchester mayor to stand in his seat after his early retirement, but both men denied that there had been any pact.
Burnham has made no secret of his ambitions. He prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers after he said before the Labour conference last year that many MPs had urged him to run for Labour leader.
But allies have cautioned not to overstate the extent of planning that might be under way, suggesting that he was passionate about his current job and would only ever make a decision to return to Westminster if a seat became available.
“People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer,” one said.
Burnham would have no guarantee of the nomination should he decide to try to return to Westminster in a byelection, with the candidate selected by a panel of members from the party’s ruling national executive committee (NEC).
Five members of the NEC told the Guardian they believed it would be impossible for Burnham to make it through the selection panel – given the number of Starmer allies on the body and how they could be handpicked to sit on the selection panel.
They said this was not just down to personal animosity to Burnham, but the great cost and uncertainty of a mayoral byelection. It could mean that about £500,000 of party funding was diverted from other races across Britain.
“What if Reform won the Greater Manchester mayoralty? It would be totemic for them: their biggest win yet. We would be mad to let that happen,” one said.
“It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources when we are fighting other crucial elections. It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed,” another added.
However, other senior party figures suggested that even though the body was dominated by Starmer loyalists there would be significant disquiet among MPs, the unions and party members should it try to block Burnham.
“I don’t think anybody wants a big fight within the NEC. That’s not where anybody wants to end up. Nobody benefits from that. But you would be unwise to second guess the NEC,” one said.
The unions are also a significant force on the party’s ruling body, holding 14 out of the 25 seats. The Fire Brigades Union general secretary, Steve Wright, said: “It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked from seeking selection as Labour’s byelection candidate in this seat.
“In the event that a byelection takes place, as an affiliated union, the FBU will not stand by and allow senior Labour politicians like Andy to be carved out of this process. Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection.
“It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure to choose Labour’s candidate to fight this byelection. Anything less would be unacceptable.”
There are historic examples of the full NEC rejecting shortlists drawn up by the selection panel because they did not initially include certain candidates, such as Jonathan Reynolds in Stalybridge and Tristram Hunt in Stoke-on-Trent Central.
It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist in order to stop his nomination.
A party insider suggested that Downing Street had been closely observing the bounce in support that Kemi Badenoch received for acting decisively by sacking Robert Jenrick when he defected to Reform UK last week.
Another warned that MPs and members were already concerned about the risk of destabilising the party with leadership speculation before the local and devolved elections in May. “I don’t think anybody would thank Andy for triggering more of that,” one said.
Gwynne has an 18,000 majority in the seat, which lies to the south-east of Manchester. Reform UK is likely to see mount a significant challenge in any byelection, capitalising on support in the Tameside part of the constituency.
Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger, Greater Manchester part of the seat, although could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Burnham return to parliament, he would have to secure the backing of 80 Labour MPs to challenge Starmer.
Gwynne’s office has been approached for comment. Burnham declined to comment.
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