Best starting point for SA in years – Mavuso

South Africa enters 2026 with high commodity prices, reliable electricity, stable finances and lower interest rates, creating the strongest foundation for growth in over a decade. 

Progress on three critical priorities will determine whether this momentum translates into sustained 2%+ growth: transforming logistics through rail and port concessioning, fixing local government service delivery and strengthening criminal justice effectiveness.

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We start 2026 with commodity prices riding high, a strong stock market, reliable electricity, lower interest rates, stable government finances and a slowly improving criminal justice system.

These positive factors, combined with ongoing political stability within the Government of National Unity, should consolidate into improved confidence, investment and a virtuous cycle of increased economic activity. But to truly unlock higher growth, there are three critical areas where we must see tangible progress this year: logistics infrastructure, local government service delivery and criminal justice effectiveness.

Success on these fronts would position South Africa to finally achieve sustained economic growth above 2%, something we haven’t managed for over a decade.

First, I want to see the first privately-owned rolling stock running on our rails this year. Eleven private operators have been selected to operate 41 routes across six corridors, offering a way to significantly expand the capacity and reliability of our rail network.

Transnet and the operators are now in commercial negotiations to finalise access agreements for up to 10 years. The first operations are due to start in the second half of 2026. This will create the reliability that mining companies, agricultural exporters and manufacturers need to commit to expansion.

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Port concessioning is showing similar momentum. Transnet in December finalised the first port concession deal for Durban’s Container Terminal Pier 2, which will be managed by Philippine ports giant International Container Terminal Services for the next 25 years.

The terminal handles more than 40% of South Africa’s container volumes, so investment in capacity and efficiency could have a dramatic impact. A similar deal has been signed to concession Cape Town’s liquid bulk terminal to FFS Tank Terminals.

More concessions should result in genuine competition between ports to offer businesses better services, while rail companies compete to move goods to those ports efficiently and cost-effectively. These breakthroughs must deliver a shift in logistics system reliability comparable to what we’ve achieved in electricity over the last five years.

We need to see South Africa’s ports move up the global rankings for efficiency, while reducing the cost of getting goods to markets.

A transformed logistics system would provide enormous impetus for investment – when businesses know they can reliably move inputs and outputs, previously marginal investments become viable.

Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) will continue working closely with government and Transnet to identify bottlenecks in the concessioning process and ensure implementation moves swiftly.

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Local government crisis 

Second, if we are to accelerate growth from there, we must address local government performance. Johannesburg, the economic heart of the country, illustrates the crisis.

Last week, large parts of the city were without water as Rand Water undertook maintenance. Several suburbs are scheduled to be without water for the next two weeks.

Joburg Water, responsible for last-mile delivery, loses a quarter of its water through leaks and has storage capacity far below what’s needed. This reflects decades of deferred maintenance that have left infrastructure failing.

Beyond water, the problems are systemic. While Eskom and the national grid are in better shape, many consumers rely on municipal electricity distribution, where failures due to poorly maintained infrastructure continue to disrupt businesses and households. Roads are deteriorating, traffic lights remain non-functional across major metros, and refuse collection is unreliable. These directly affect productivity, logistics costs and the basic functioning of the economy.

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Operation Vulindlela (OV) is launching specific interventions this year that should begin to turn this around. The most important is ring-fencing utility revenues to ensure money collected for water and electricity is spent on maintaining and upgrading those systems rather than subsidising other services.

This addresses a fundamental governance failure where utilities have been treated as cash cows rather than infrastructure that requires constant investment.

OV is also supporting capacity building by pairing private sector technical experts with municipal engineers, a model we’ve seen work in electricity reform. BLSA will continue supporting these efforts with mentors and technical expertise where municipalities are willing to engage.

Local government elections later this year will provide democratic accountability for poor performance. Voters should demand concrete commitments on infrastructure maintenance, financial management, and service delivery – not just political promises. Better leadership, combined with the structural reforms OV is driving, could finally begin reversing municipal decline.

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Third, we must see marked improvement in criminal justice system performance. The Madlanga Commission has documented in detail how dysfunctional our police force has become, revealing problems ranging from political interference in investigations to failures in basic case management and evidence handling.

When the final report emerges, government must use it to set a new baseline for police reform, the way the Hefer Commission enabled Sars’s transformation, or the Mpati Commission underpinned the Public Investment Corporation’s rehabilitation. This requires political will to implement uncomfortable recommendations about removing compromised officials and rebuilding investigative capacity.

The appointment of Jan Lekgoa Mothibi as National Director of Public Prosecutions is encouraging.

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As we noted in a press release last week, Mothibi brings extensive prosecutorial experience and a track record of successfully handling complex cases. But as we’ve noted repeatedly, even the best appointment will struggle without institutional reform. The NDPP must be empowered to drive real change in the NPA’s performance. This means making the institution independent from the Department of Justice, giving the NDPP authority over senior appointments and personnel decisions and making the NDPP the accounting officer responsible for the NPA’s performance.

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Without these structural reforms, we’ll continue seeing the prosecutorial failures that have characterised state capture cases. BLSA will continue funding forensic specialists to support the NPA’s capacity, but capacity alone won’t fix an institution that lacks proper independence and authority.

These three priorities are interconnected parts of the enabling environment that either attract or repel investment. Reliable logistics allows businesses to compete globally, expanding production and employment. Functional local government ensures the basic infrastructure and services that businesses need to operate efficiently. An effective criminal justice system protects property rights, enforces contracts, and creates the rule of law foundation that investors require for long-term capital commitments.

When investors, both local and foreign, ask when South Africa will achieve sustained economic growth above 2%, they’re really asking when we’ll have resolved these fundamental constraints.

We haven’t had two consecutive years of plus-2% growth for over a decade. But 2026 could mark the beginning if we deliver on these three priorities. The positive factors we’re starting the year with create the conditions for success. Now we need execution – Transnet must move rail and port concessions from agreements to operations, municipalities must implement revenue ring-fencing and accept technical support, and government must act on Justice Madlanga’s findings and empower the new NDPP.

BLSA will be working intensively with government and our members on all three fronts. The business-government partnership model that ended load shedding and delivered the G20 summit has proven what’s possible.

Applying that same focus and coordination to logistics, local government and criminal justice can unlock the growth trajectory South Africa desperately needs. I look forward to reporting on progress as we move through the year.

* Busi Mavuso is CEO of BLSA.

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