Why hasn’t bitcoin followed gold to the heavens?

You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.

2025 started out with some bold predictions for bitcoin, with some forecasting a year-end price of $150 000, even $250 000. That never happened. Instead it ended the year around $90 000 – 5% lower than where it was in January a year ago.

Gold on the other hand shot up 65% last year, and silver was even better – up 158%.

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There was some lift in the bitcoin price in the last week, but those who have been involved in bitcoin longer than most would say: So what? We’ve seen far more vicious cycles in the past where the price dropped 70% and even 80%.

In this podcast, Carel de Jager, founder and CEO of crypto analytics firm Silver Sixpence, offers some clues as to why bitcoin underperformed gold in the latter part of 2025: the announcement that Strategy – bitcoin’s biggest corporate holder – would be kicked off the MSCI index (which was later reversed); rumours of a large seller forced to liquidate its position; and the promised US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve turning into a vague stockpile programme, failing to create the buy-side demand anticipated.

Many believed that the current US administration would usher in a regulatory overhaul that could provide upward momentum for bitcoin.

The appointment of pro-crypto officials, including a dedicated crypto czar, SA-born David Sachs, fuelled excitement in the market.

Despite these tailwinds, bitcoin’s actual performance did not meet the lofty expectations.

US President Donald Trump replaced sceptics in key positions within the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This led to some positive developments, such as the passage of the Genius Act and progress on the Market Structure Bill. These regulatory advancements were expected to bolster institutional adoption of bitcoin.

Perhaps the most bullish signal for bitcoin as we enter 2026 is the reversal of the decision to kick Strategy, which owns about 660 000 BTC, off the MSCI index.

“Last night [Tuesday, 6 January] we saw the MSCI actually announcing that Strategy will not be removed from the index. And this is majorly bullish. The MSCI index consists of a bunch of companies listed on US stock exchanges, and a lot of the passive funds like endowments and retirement funds and so on just buy the index without putting any additional thought into it,” says De Jager.

“So it’s a very passive investment index and Strategy was part of that. We know that any buying of Strategy shares the results in [the] buying of BTC.”

Gold is way overbought

De Jager says a large exchange somewhere in the world is currently underwater and selling user deposits to stay afloat.

“I don’t think any of this is public yet, but the price candles are showing us that there’s a big seller that’s desperate for demand-side liquidity and has been for the last few months.

“In summary, my prediction for 2026 is positive [for bitcoin]. I think Strategy remaining inside the MSCI is extremely bullish.

“Regulatory clarity such as the US [Digital Asset] Market Structure Bill will accelerate institutional adoption this year. It will be massive.

“And once this forced seller, which I think is an exchange, is done hitting the red button, I think that organic buy-side demand will take over and push bitcoin to new highs.”

De Jager argues that gold is heavily overbought as the pendulum has swung way too far towards risk-off assets. “I know this because people around me who [have] never paid any attention to commodities are suddenly trying to get their hands on the metal. And a good rule of thumb is to never buy anything when it’s at an all-time high. It’s a classic fear-and-greed index [scenario].

“Always try to find the boring investments, the ones with strong fundamentals.”

Self-sovereignty

Also discussed in this podcast is bitcoin’s role in achieving self-sovereignty, a concept floated in the 1998 book The Sovereign Individual by James Davidson and William Rees-Mogg.

“What’s interesting about the book is it was authored in 1998 and they predicted bitcoin almost exactly as it turned out,” says De Jager.

“Of course, they did not know what it would be called at the time. So they just described it, the authors, as like this internet currency and that it would be decentralised and it would be outside of government control. And they described it with immense accuracy.

“One of the main lessons from The Sovereign Individual is that you should be as mobile as possible. It predicts that governments around the world will become increasingly hostile towards their citizens and more desperate for power,” he adds.

“And if you need to escape from such a hostile government, you need to be able to do so while preserving all of your wealth.

Listen/read: SA (and Sars) on board with global crypto reporting initiative … [Jan 2026]

“Physical assets actually inhibit your ability to be mobile. If you for instance own a property and that’s a significant part of your net worth, you cannot pack the property in your bag and take the first available flight out of the country. So the book actually portrays this quite well and it recommends that you position yourself to be as borderless as possible.”

That means you should try and make your work and your income as geographically independent as possible.

“Now we know how to do that. You just do online work as much as possible,” says De Jager.

Bitcoin is a major part of structuring your affairs as a geographically independent, sovereign individuals.

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