In the days after George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq, the war was a hit with the American public. A Gallup poll conducted in March 2003 found 72 percent support for the shock-and-awe attack.
Bush and his war were the beneficiaries of what political scientists call the “rally ’round the flag” effect — the historical tendency of Americans to back their leaders in times of conflict.
Donald Trump’s presidency might mark the end of that dynamic.
In the aftermath of his attack on Venezuela, three flash polls conducted by separate outlets found that more Americans oppose the war than support it. Support for the war is sharply split along party lines. Only about a third of Americans support it.
“We have been saying all along that Americans don’t want war in Venezuela.”
The underwater polling for Trump’s war is a result of a polarized electorate, the president’s hyper-partisan governing style, the lack of an attempt to push Congress and the public to back the war, and the absence of any 9/11-style tragedy that could have been used to justify the attack, observers said.
Critics say the war will only grow more unpopular over time — and the time is now for Trump to listen to the polls.
“We have been saying all along that Americans don’t want war in Venezuela. There are not enough votes in Congress to pass a declaration of war, or an authorization for the use of military force authorizing war in Venezuela,” said Heather Brandon-Smith, the legislative director of foreign policy for the Friends Committee on National Legislation. “I would urge the administration to listen to the American people and bring an end to this operation.”
No Olive Branche to Dems
In the run-up to the Iraq War, the Bush White House mounted an extensive public relations campaign to convince voters that the attack was necessary.
The campaign relied in large part on lies about Saddam Hussein’s nonexistent weapons of mass destruction and his purported ties to Al Qaeda, but it was successful nonetheless in winning substantial support from congressional Democrats.
The contrast with today is striking. In the past few months, Trump has made no effort to extend an olive branch to Democrats — instead, his secretary of war was publicly threatening to court-martial a Democratic senator.
Nor was there a push, this time around, for formal legislative approval for the conflict. In the early 2000s, Bush convinced Congress to pass laws authorizing his wars. When it comes to Venezuela, the Trump administration’s position remains that it needs no congressional approval for what it deems a “law enforcement operation.”
Perhaps the most significant difference is the lack of an earth-shattering event, such as the September 11 attacks.
“There has been no comparable shock, no comparable effort to build consensus, build political support, as there was in 2002 leading up to the invasion of Iraq,” said Brian Finucane, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group.
Instead, congressional Democrats regularly complained over the past few months that they were being kept in the dark about the military’s strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats, as well as the White House’s ultimate plans for its armada in the Caribbean.
James Zogby, an analyst and head of the Arab American Institute, said the difference in the run-up between the Iraq and Venezuela wars was striking. When Zogby tried to convince fellow members of the Democratic National Committee to pass a resolution calling for diplomacy in the run-up to the war in early 2003, the effort was ruled out of order. Many Democrats were in fear of Bush’s popularity after the September 11 attacks, he said.
“Democrats rolled on Iraq. We haven’t seen what they will do on this one,” he said. “I don’t hear any Democrats being supportive, although some are being a little more skittish.”
The 33 percent support for the Venezuela war, as measured in a Reuters survey, may be the high-water mark for the conflict, Zogby said.
MAGA Loves Regime Change?
If Democrats have remained largely united in the wake of the attack on Venezuela, so have Republicans. Sixty-five percent of them approve of Trump’s attack, versus 11 percent of Democrats, and 23 percent of Americans with other political affiliations, according to the January 4-5 Reuters survey.
The polling numbers have barely budged from pre-attack surveys. Christopher Gelpi, a professor of political science at Ohio State University, said in an email that it was “not surprising the rally round the flag effect for this use of force is quite modest.”
“The level of political polarization in America has muted the size of rally effects as it has become very difficult to rally members of the opposing party,” he said.
While Trump was supposed to represent a new, isolationist era for Republicans, MAGA’s ranks seem to have chosen Trump over his rhetoric on restraint. Zogby said it’s not clear whether they will stick with him on Venezuela in the long run.
“This is not a support base as much as it is a cult,” Zogby said. “The question is: Is this sustainable? Is there going to be something that pops the bubble? That would be if this turns out to be a bloody mess.”
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