Are we in the early or late stages of a precious metals supercycle?

Gold and silver’s parabolic run in late 2025 is not yet over, with further gains expected in 2026, according to several analysts.

Some are calling this the start of a precious metals “supercycle” – powered upwards by bond market jitters and widening geopolitical tensions as US President Donald Trump’s administration kicks off the New Year with the brazen abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, accusing him of narco-trafficking.

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Gold started 2025 at $2 624 an ounce (oz) and ended the year at $4 325 – a 65% gain, the strongest since 1979.

Silver started the yer at around $29/oz and traded this week at $75/oz, a gain of 158%.

Silver surge

Silver was the breakout metal of 2025 after five years of supply deficits at a time of rising demand and flat mining production. Silver has disappointed for so long that it barely rates a mention, but that’s about to change.

A December 2025 study by The Silver Institute says silver “is poised to play a pivotal ‘next generation metal’ role across industries critical to the green energy transition and digital transformation over the coming decade”.

Goldman Sachs agues gold is in a multi-year structural supercycle, forecasting a price around $5 000/oz by mid-2026, while JPMorgan forecasts $5 055/oz by the fourth quarter of 2026. Bank of America likewise sees the price at around $5 000/oz this year.

UBS and Citigroup both see silver at around $110/oz in 2026 due to ongoing supply deficits. Others see it closer to $100/oz in 2026.

The question remains whether this is a maturing supercycle or one just getting started?

In the case of silver, the mining output at about 800 million ounces a year has been unable to meet demand for the last five years. That will not easily balance out over the next five years. The supply deficits will continue, providing underpinning to prices – though we should expect volatility to be part of the trading cycle.

Bullion rally

Gold’s astonishing rise in 2025 is a corollary of dedollarisation as central banks worldwide aggressively diversify into gold, while interest rate cuts around the world make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive to investors.

It has some unique properties, such as its high electrical conductivity, that make it almost indispensable to many industries. This property is critical for many industries – it enhances energy conversion in solar panels, accelerates data processing in data centres, and enables rapid charging and efficient power transmission in electric vehicles.

Many of the same forces propelling gold are now powering the silver train.

The US dollar lost roughly 10% of its value against other major currencies in 2025, while central banks are buying up almost 1 000 tonnes of gold a year as a hedging strategy against further USD weakness.

Platinum and palladium are likewise locked in a sustained uptrend, posting gains of 137% and 150% for the last calendar year. This explains to a large degree the JSE’s 37% leap in 2025 with nine of the 10 best performers being gold or platinum group metals (PGMs) producers.

Top 10 JSE stocks 2025

Platinum outperformed palladium in 2025, hitting an all-time high of $2 323 in December to cap off its strongest year on record.

The rally was supported by persistent supply deficits, emerging green technologies and rebounding automotive demand.

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Palladium, with 40% of global supply coming from Russia, rebounded after several years of weak performance. Similar to platinum, palladium faces ongoing supply deficits while above-ground stocks are being depleted.

Slowing demand for electric vehicles boosted demand for PGMs used in catalytic converters, while record exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows sustained investment demand for the metal.

Platinum scraped $2 320/oz in December, with some analysts posting $3 000/oz as the target for 2026.

Analyst Jesse Colombo argues that platinum’s break above the $1 720-$1 760 resistance zone in December is likely to be followed by new highs.

“After today’s breakout, I expect platinum to continue much higher from here as its bull market heats up, and the only thing to do now is sit back and let this exciting and lucrative thesis play out. I believe it has many years left,” he wrote in December.

Palladium could reach $1 800-$2 000, having broken through resistance at $1 640-$1 680 in early 2026.

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