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Industry experts have expressed skepticism over Donald Trump<\/a>\u2019s bullish prediction that US big oil firms will rapidly invest tens of billions of dollars to fix Venezuelan infrastructure and ramp up production after the rendition of the country\u2019s president, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro<\/a>.<\/p>\n Without an \u201ciron-clad guarantee\u201d that the US federal government will fully reimburse them for the cost of rebuilding the country\u2019s oil market, analysts expect global energy giants to proceed with extreme caution.<\/p>\n The US president has nevertheless insisted the oil industry<\/a> will move quickly, boldly predicting that dominant US players could get an expanded oil operation \u201cup and running\u201d across Venezuela<\/a> \u2013 reputedly home to the world\u2019s largest crude oil reserves \u2013 in less than 18 months.<\/p>\n \u201cI think we can do it in less time than that,\u201d Trump claimed in an interview<\/a> with NBC News on Monday. \u201cBut it\u2019ll be a lot of money.\u201d<\/p>\n In the face of such sweeping declarations, US oil firms such as ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron \u2013 the only US oil major still operating in Venezuela \u2013 have so far declined to publicly outline any such plans for investment<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cIt would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments,\u201d a Conoco spokesperson said this weekend. Hours earlier, Trump had stated at a press conference that \u201cour very large United States oil companies\u201d were poised to \u201cgo in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country\u201d.<\/p>\n The ambitious timeline laid out by Trump could prove unrealistic. \u201cIt\u2019s probably going to take three years for any kind of production bounce,\u201d said Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, who expects an increase of around half a million barrels per day (bpd) by \u201c2029, maybe late 2028\u201d.<\/p>\n Energy firms will probably spend the first year sorting through new government and security contracts, he suggested, the second year investing in reconstruction, and only find themselves in a position to meaningfully increase output in the third.<\/p>\n \u201cEither the US is going to step up with guarantees, or we\u2019re going to spend six to 12 months watching the dust settle,\u201d added Pickering, who noted that multinationals\u2019 interest in Venezuelan oil does not necessarily correspond with their appetite to invest heavily in a country with an uncertain future.<\/p>\n \u201cI think their interest is an eight, on a scale of one to 10,\u201d he said. \u201cI think their appetite is a four or five on a scale of one to 10, because there is no clarity yet.\u201d<\/p>\n Seasoned operators in the region believe the firms will tread carefully. \u201cI expect that you\u2019ll see all of them now say, \u2018This is fantastic, it\u2019s a great opportunity, and we have a team ready to go to Venezuela,\u2019\u201d Elliott Abrams, who served as Trump\u2019s special envoy to Venezuela during his first term, told Politico<\/a>. \u201cBut that\u2019s politics \u2026 That doesn\u2019t mean they\u2019re going to invest.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump has repeatedly raised the prospect of oil giants being reimbursed by the federal government for any investments they make in Venezuela<\/a>.<\/p>\n But the administration has yet to come forward with any detail on whether the US taxpayer will back them.<\/p>\n Only an \u201ciron-clad guarantee\u201d from the government that they will be repaid for \u201cevery dollar spent\u201d will prompt oil companies to move more quickly, according to Pickering.<\/p>\n They want to \u201cavoid getting screwed\u201d, he said. \u201cYou need to be protected from sovereign risk, that we\u2019ve seen in Venezuela already: you\u2019ve got to protect against being nationalized again. You\u2019ve also got to protect a different US administration in two years, saying: \u2018I don\u2019t think that\u2019s a good idea, I\u2019m not going to pay you back.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n