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Hours after US President Donald Trump stunned the world by saying the US plans to \u201crun\u201d Venezuela, uncertainty over what that means and who is in charge loomed over the South American nation.<\/p>\n
Ousted Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro was an indicted prisoner on a flight bound for New York by the time his Vice President Delcy Rodr\u00edguez \u2013 who Trump said would partner with Washington to \u201cmake Venezuela great again\u201d \u2013 denounced the intervention as \u201cbarbaric\u201d and a \u201ckidnapping.\u201d<\/p>\n
Read: US to \u2018run Venezuela\u2019 in\u00a0interim after Maduro capture,\u00a0says Trump<\/p>\n
Adding to the confusion was that the White House offered few details about what running an oil-producing nation of about 30 million people would entail.<\/p>\n
A US official said Secretary of State Marco Rubio \u2013 who has spent his career criticising Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez \u2013 would take the leading administration role.<\/p>\n
\nFor now, there\u2019s no plan spelled out to have American troops or administrators in Venezuela.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
But Trump signalled that he\u2019s keenly focused on the country\u2019s petroleum, saying the US would have a \u201cpresence in Venezuela as it pertains to oil\u201d. That could mean a greater role for Chevron Corp, which still operates in Venezuela under waivers from sanctions, as well as for other major American oil companies.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
Read:\u00a0Oil holds gain as traders focus on Venezuela, Black Sea outage [Dec 2025]<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s resistance to keeping American boots on the ground and his dismissal of Venezuela\u2019s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado as a \u201cnice woman\u201d not ready to take power suggest he decided on giving Rodr\u00edguez and other Maduro loyalists a second chance over full-blown regime change. Maduro, meanwhile, is now in US custody in a detention centre in New York City.<\/p>\n
Control<\/strong><\/p>\n
Trump is \u201cessentially trying to control the vice president and people around her through carrots and sticks to get the outcomes the United States wants,\u201d said Matthew Kroenig, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council\u2019s Scowcroft Centre for Strategy and Security. \u201cWe\u2019ll see if it works.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump appeared to confirm that approach with his remarks later in the day to the\u00a0New York Post, when he said that US troops on the ground would not be necessary as long as Rodr\u00edguez \u201cdoes what we want\u201d.<\/p>\n
That strategy is a huge gamble \u2013 particularly for a president who campaigned in 2016 on ending America\u2019s \u201cforever wars\u201d but has since used the US military to strike targets in Iran, Yemen, Nigeria and the Caribbean Sea.<\/p>\n
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Read:<\/p>\n
Which Trump are we dealing\u00a0with? [Feb 2025]<\/div>\nTrump stymied in \u2018art of the\u00a0deal\u2019 approach to world\u2019s\u00a0strongmen [Jun 2025]<\/div>\nTrump notches up more than\u00a0$16bn in health pacts with\u00a0Africa [Jan 2026]<\/div>\nOn Sunday, Trump told the Atlantic magazine that some rebuilding will be needed in Venezuela as he issued a warning to Rodr\u00edguez. \u201cIf she doesn\u2019t do what\u2019s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Venezuela has suffered through decades of mismanagement that eroded the country\u2019s oil infrastructure, sparked prolonged bouts of hyperinflation, and saw millions of economic and political migrants flee for neighbouring countries and the US. A total collapse of the government sparked by the early morning US strike risks causing even more turmoil.<\/p>\n
Hedging<\/strong><\/p>\n
Rodr\u00edguez gave mixed messages in her public comments on Saturday.<\/p>\n
She called for the ousted president\u2019s return, but she also said Venezuela could still have \u201crespectful relationships\u201d, perhaps offering a path to a detente with the US if she can consolidate power and the two sides cooperate.<\/p>\n
Venezuela\u2019s Supreme Court late Saturday granted Rodr\u00edguez all presidential powers in an acting capacity.<\/p>\n
\nRubio said on Sunday the US would watch her actions more than her rhetoric.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\u201cWe are going to make an assessment of what they do, not what they say publicly in the interim, not what we know, what they\u2019ve done in the past in many cases, but what they do moving forward,\u201d he said on CBS\u2019s\u00a0Face the Nation. \u201cSo we\u2019re going to find out.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump warned of a potential second wave of American attacks if that cooperation isn\u2019t forthcoming.<\/p>\n
He said \u201call political and military figures in Venezuela should understand what happened to Maduro can happen to them, and it will happen to them\u201d if they aren\u2019t \u201cfair\u201d to the Venezuelan people.<\/p>\n
Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n
In the short term \u2013 and barring a breakdown of governance \u2013 the administration\u2019s move could offer it the opportunity to help revive Venezuela\u2019s decaying oil industry, something Trump seemed particularly focused on when he announced Maduro\u2019s capture.<\/p>\n
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\u201cWe\u2019re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country,\u201d Trump said.<\/p>\n
In the same news conference, he said, \u201cWe\u2019re going to make sure that that country is run properly.\u201d<\/p>\n
\nA multi-year recovery of Venezuelan oil production could entail a 4% decline in global oil prices over time, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
That would help the US president address the affordability concerns voters have, but energy analysts added that it could take years for Venezuela\u2019s oil industry \u2013 plagued by mismanagement, corruption and sanctions \u2013 to recover.<\/p>\n
\u201cBoth upside and downside scenarios have significant implications for Venezuela\u2019s outlook, debt markets, global oil supply, and the US standing in the region and the world,\u201d Bloomberg Economics analyst Jimena Zuniga wrote.<\/p>\n
Immediate priorities <\/strong><\/p>\n
Following the Trump news conference, a US official laid out some priorities for the coming days, saying that administration officials will engage diplomatically with those remaining in the Venezuelan government, as well as with oil executives on expanding output.<\/p>\n
\nThe official said the US military will remain ready and the oil embargo will remain in effect.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
US strikes on suspected drug vessels will continue.<\/p>\n
Yet the uncertainty over what really happens next hung over Caracas as it settled into its first night without Maduro in more than a decade, with many of his regime\u2019s loyal backers still in the country.<\/p>\n
\u2018Bit skeptical\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n
That reality, and Rodr\u00edguez\u2019s long history with Maduro, are \u201cwhy I\u2019m a bit skeptical this can work out long term\u201d said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Programme and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.<\/p>\n
All day long, Venezuelans lined up outside grocery stores and gas stations amid worries about the nation\u2019s future.<\/p>\n
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While Trump sought to project optimism, the military manoeuvre recalled past US efforts at regime change that yielded mixed results. For now, hawkish Republicans appear to have rallied to Trump\u2019s side while more isolationist supporters have balked. A top worry will be whether the US gets bogged down.<\/p>\n
\u201cA bigger concern really would be that this all falls apart here, that there isn\u2019t an effort to make sure there\u2019s a successful handoff,\u201d said Matt Terrill, managing partner at Firehouse Strategies.<\/p>\n
Iraq, Afghanistan<\/strong><\/p>\n
Under President George W Bush the US invaded two countries \u2013 Afghanistan after the September 11 attacks in 2001, and Iraq, to depose Saddam Hussein, in 2003.<\/p>\n
Both conflicts and the insurgencies they spawned mired the US in bloody and costly occupations for years.<\/p>\n
\nFrustration over those deployments and the messy Afghanistan withdrawal helped propel Trump to the presidency twice.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
It\u2019s now a legacy he and perhaps Rubio, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, risk taking on.<\/p>\n
Read:\u00a0Trump moves to rename Defence Department as Department of War [Sep 2025]<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning,\u201d CSIS\u2019s Berg wrote on Saturday.<\/p>\n
\u201cVenezuela will enter a long transition with even greater US involvement in shaping the government to come.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a02026\u00a0Bloomberg L.P.<\/p>\n
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