Taylor<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\nOutside the United States! The best risk-adjusted venture returns are not in Silicon Valley anymore. They are in markets like Poland,\u00a0Turkey,\u00a0and Greece. <\/p>\n
When you invest across 25 countries in a single year, you stop thinking of\u00a0venture\u00a0as something that happens in one place and then spreads outward. Twenty years ago,\u00a0roughly 90%\u00a0of venture dollars went to the United States. That flipped in 2018. Today, more than half of venture investment \u2014 and more than half of the world\u2019s unicorns \u2014 are outside the U.S.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
We see this every day. Founders in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia are building venture-scale companies \u2014 often serving massive markets from the start. In our pipeline,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0normal to see founders from Venezuela building in Iraq, or from Sudan building global businesses.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Chang<\/strong><\/p>\nI\u2019m most interested in founders who are tackling massive problems and leveraging technology for forward progress. I\u2019m rather unmoved by the plethora of startups focused on agentically automating workflows for specific verticals. I\u2019m much more interested in the larger platform shifts that will define this era of technological and societal progress.<\/p>\n
Bankiya <\/strong><\/p>\nWe\u2019ve seen tremendous impact on software from AI. I think the next frontier is at the intersection of software and hardware. Most of the world\u2019s GDP is locked up in physical industries, and software-only solutions aren\u2019t enough to fully unlock the world\u2019s growth potential.<\/p>\n
Do you think the IPO market will thaw? Why or why not?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\nNorman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\nYes, the IPO market is likely to thaw, not because conditions are suddenly ideal, but because the system is running out of\u00a0viable\u00a0alternatives.\u00a0We\u2019re\u00a0approaching a tipping point where the private market\u2019s ability to sustain multi-billion-dollar valuations, often disconnected from profitability or liquidity, is wearing thin. Years of \u201cpaper markups\u201d have postponed reality, but they\u00a0haven\u2019t\u00a0eliminated\u00a0it. Companies, boards, and late-stage investors increasingly need a mechanism to reset expectations, generate real liquidity, and re-establish price discovery.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Private credit has acted as a stopgap, extending runways without forcing valuation discipline. But that bridge is starting to look more like a pressure cooker. Debt can delay decisions, not solve structural capital needs, especially for companies built for equity-style growth. At some point, fresh capital becomes necessary, and public markets\u00a0remain\u00a0the only place capable of providing it at scale. Their growth narratives and strategic\u00a0importance\u00a0can provide the \u201cair cover\u201d needed to reopen the IPO window. Once investors re-engage around\u00a0category-defining leaders, it creates permission for the broader high-growth software sector to follow.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Blumberg<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\nI think we will see a reopening of the IPO markets driven by the backlog of companies planning to list. Many large tech IPOs are\u00a0anticipated,\u00a0including darlings like Anthropic and OpenAI, and I believe one of these mega IPOs will drive considerable momentum for others.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Taylor<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\nYes. 2026 will be a big year for IPOs in New York as dozens of the top companies simply decide \u201cit\u2019s time.\u201d It will also be a banner year for tech IPOs in places folks are not used to seeing them \u2014 like the stock market in Saudi Arabia.\u00a0<\/p>\n
I think people\u00a0underestimate how global the thaw will be.\u00a0We\u2019ve\u00a0had\u00a0nearly four\u00a0years of muted IPO activity, which has created a backlog of high-quality companies that are ready to be public. When the window opens, it\u00a0won\u2019t\u00a0just be U.S. companies stepping through it.\u00a0There\u2019s\u00a0already a cohort of major U.S.-listed technology companies from Latin America, including\u00a0MercadoLibre\u00a0and\u00a0Nubank, and\u00a0there\u2019s\u00a0another wave right behind them that public-market investors\u00a0haven\u2019t\u00a0fully priced in yet.\u00a0I don\u2019t think all of those companies list in 2026, but several will.\u00a0<\/p>\n
What\u2019s\u00a0even more unexpected is what happens locally.\u00a0You\u2019re\u00a0going to see meaningful technology IPOs in places like Saudi Arabia, listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul). When companies like Tabby [a buy-now-pay-later outfit] go public locally, it will challenge assumptions about where global tech outcomes happen.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Chang <\/strong><\/p>\nWe\u2019re looking to make slightly fewer, more concentrated bets. There is a ton of startup activity, so when we meet founders who really stand out, we want to be able to back up our high conviction with a higher check size and higher ownership percentage.<\/p>\n
Bankyia<\/p>\n
I think a hard catalyst would be required to reset the IPO markets \u2014 something akin to mega AI players facing unprecedented cost increases or sharp revenue declines. Think, for example, of energy prices sharply rising, such that it\u2019s unaffordable to offer compute for AI training and inference.<\/p>\n
How are you looking at the venture market for next year as a fund\u00a0manager?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\nNorman\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\nWe\u2019re\u00a0entering what\u00a0I\u2019d\u00a0describe as a clearing event for the venture market, and next year will separate durable platforms from transient ones. The fallout will hit Fund I managers who\u00a0haven\u2019t\u00a0found their footing, and active Fund II managers struggling with a [distributions-paid-in-capital, or DPI] drought from 2021 vintages. Traditional institutional anchors, particularly university endowments, are effectively in repair mode. After being squeezed by the absence of liquidity in 2021 and 2022, many are leaning on secondaries, pacing adjustments, and portfolio-smoothing strategies just to\u00a0maintain\u00a0existing commitments.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
That means fewer new relationships and far less tolerance for emerging or undifferentiated managers. Stepping into their place are family offices that have moved from passive LP roles to active market forces. They\u00a0aren\u2019t\u00a0just\u00a0filling\u00a0the \u2018LP oxygen\u2019 left by retreating institutions; they are scoping direct mandates and using [registered investment advisors] to hunt for unique, high-conviction strategies.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
In 2026, there is no\u00a0viable\u00a0middle ground. You need to have a clinical, defensible\u00a0track record\u00a0and\/or truly unfair access to differentiated deal flow. Lightly grounded generalist positioning, soft networks, and \u201cgood enough\u201d performance\u00a0won\u2019t\u00a0survive this cycle.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Blumberg\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\nWe believe we are in the early innings of AI transformation, so we expect next year to be a strong vintage. Capital continues to concentrate in a select number of\u00a0winners\u00a0so we focus on being selective and operationally supporting our companies to earn our right to concentrate. We are\u00a0advising our portfolio companies to\u00a0strengthen their balance sheets in case of a downturn in 2026 while focusing on building for the long term rather than\u00a0optimizing for\u00a0fast funding.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Taylor\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\nAmazing time to back the boldest founders building for the next 10+ years! From a fund manager\u2019s perspective, 2026 looks strong on both deployment and liquidity. Last year we had 12 liquidity events \u2014 all through M&A and secondaries. That matters because venture has grown dramatically over the last two decades, while paths to liquidity\u00a0didn\u2019t\u00a0keep pace.\u00a0What\u2019s\u00a0changing now is that venture is building a more complete liquidity toolkit \u2014 M&A, secondaries, and IPOs working together.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
That\u2019s\u00a0critical when founders are committing 10, 15, even 20 years to building companies. At the same time,\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0seeing\u00a0real structural\u00a0shifts in core sectors. Financial technology, especially stablecoins, moved from experimentation to mainstream adoption in 2025, particularly in markets like Latin America and Africa. In those places, this\u00a0isn\u2019t\u00a0speculative technology;\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0infrastructure. That combination is why 2026 looks like a strong year to be deploying capital.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Bankyia<\/p>\n
We\u2019re still searching for phenomenal European founders building groundbreaking companies. Great companies are formed in all cycles.<\/p>\n
What will happen to all the\u00a0investor\u00a0and\u00a0startup interest\u00a0in AI next year?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\nNorman\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\nIn 2026, the \u2018AI curiosity\u2019 that fueled the last two years is being replaced by a demand for application and scale. We are moving from the era of building models to the era of building businesses. The fastest, most innovative companies\u00a0aren\u2019t\u00a0the ones with the largest\u00a0LLMs,\u00a0they are the ones using AI to solve high-value, domain-specific problems that were previously too complex or too manual to scale. Investors\u00a0aren\u2019t\u00a0looking for \u2018AI startups\u2019 anymore;\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0looking for exceptional tech founders who have found a way to use this intelligence to 10x the efficiency of a massive, traditional market.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Blumberg\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\nWe expect investor and startup interest to continue at\u00a0all-time\u00a0highs. However, I do think we will start to see tuck-in acquisitions, acquihires and wind-downs in highly concentrated sectors such as coding automation, sales automation,\u00a0marketing\u00a0and advertising as market share starts to concentrate in select assets.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Taylor\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\nIt will continue. But by the end of 2026, I predict AI will stop being a separate category as it will just be a part of all\u00a0new technology\u00a0companies being built.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
There\u2019s\u00a0a lot of breathless talk about AI right now \u2014 and\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0understandable.\u00a0We\u2019re still very early in understanding what this technology will actually change.\u00a0In moments like this, excitement tends to run ahead of clarity. Some companies will be transformational, many\u00a0won\u2019t, and pricing will take time to adjust as real use cases\u00a0emerge. The opportunity\u00a0isn\u2019t\u00a0in labeling everything as \u201cAI.\u201d\u00a0It\u2019s\u00a0in understanding where AI meaningfully changes cost structures, speed, or decision-making inside real businesses.\u00a0That\u2019s\u00a0where durable value gets created.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This is one of those moments when the fog is thick, and that\u2019s when outcomes diverge the most.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Chang <\/strong><\/p>\nI don\u2019t see it slowing down anytime soon. We\u2019ve seen a lot of dollars go into infrastructure and theory; this year we\u2019ll see a lot more of that investment more clearly turn into enterprise value at the application level.<\/p>\n
Bankyia<\/p>\n
AI will remain a hot topic, barring negative hard catalysts that dramatically change conditions, like an energy crisis or a rise in default rates.<\/p>\n