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The war in<\/span> Iran has entered its first ceasefire \u2014 a two-week break from hostilities brokered largely by Pakistan that all sides have agreed to, with negotiations on a permanent end to the war to follow starting in a few days.<\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to say who has emerged a \u201cwinner\u201d in the war so far, but certainly when one examines what has been accomplished and what has not, the U.S. cannot claim a resounding victory, even as it demonstrated formidable military prowess.<\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to say who has emerged a \u201cwinner\u201d in the war so far, but the U.S. certainly cannot claim a resounding victory.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/figure>\n Iran may, in fact, be the country that can claim the victory. It\u2019s not just that the Islamic Republic of Iran survived, it\u2019s also that the country demonstrated its control over the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 an outcome that establishes Iran\u2019s position as both an influential regional force and a player able to exert sway over the entire world economy.<\/p>\n After the ceasefire announcement, Iran\u2019s first vice president posted on social media<\/a>: \u201cToday, a page of history has been turned; the world has welcomed a new pole of power, and the era of Iran has begun.\u201d <\/p>\n It sounds like Trumpian hubris, but it can\u2019t immediately be dismissed as a far-fetched fantasy.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n First, the regime had to survive. And it did: Despite President Donald Trump\u2019s self-serving claim<\/a>, the regime in Iran hasn\u2019t changed<\/a>. In fact, the Iranian government may have become even more hard-line and less accommodating<\/a> than before.<\/p>\n Iran took a beating. Despite the depletion of some of its strategic assets, however, the country has maintained many of its strategic capabilities.<\/p>\n The war hasn\u2019t, for instance, eliminated the uranium stockpile Iran still possesses, though it is buried deep underground \u2014 leaving unmet another of the demands that the Trump administration. It is unclear if any of Iran\u2019s thousands of advanced centrifuges survived the bombings in June of last year<\/a>, but Iran\u2019s ability to manufacture new ones<\/a> has not been eradicated, despite the loss of some of its nuclear scientists<\/a> over the past year.<\/p>\n Neither have Israel and the U.S. eliminated all of Iran\u2019s missile launchers or its production lines, as evidenced by the ongoing attacks against Israel and neighboring Persian Gulf states with direct hits up to the ceasefire taking effect. Iran\u2019s drone supply and production line also don\u2019t appear to have been eliminated.<\/p>\n The war, in other words,\u00a0hasn\u2019t prevented Iran from being a threat to U.S. allies in the region \u2014 a threat that has shaken the Arab Persian Gulf states\u2019 faith in U.S. security guarantees<\/a>, to say nothing of investors\u2019 confidence in the Emirates as a financial capital.<\/p>\n The Gulf is not the only region where the U.S. will suffer international consequences. The war also stoked tensions between Iran and Western nations \u2014 some of which assailed the U.S., while even staunch allies in Europe refused to cave to Trump\u2019s admonishments to join the war.<\/p>\n Iran may remain one of the most geopolitically isolated states in the world, but U.S. isolation is rapidly on the rise as well.<\/p>\n\n
Survival \u2014 and More<\/strong><\/h2>\n