{"id":28967,"date":"2026-03-27T18:02:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T18:02:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=28967"},"modified":"2026-03-27T18:02:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T18:02:23","slug":"the-regime-survives-and-iranians-are-the-biggest-losers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=28967","title":{"rendered":"The Regime Survives, and Iranians Are the Biggest Losers"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n
\n \"TEHRAN,
\n A man sweeps up debris near a residential building that was hit in an airstrike in the early hours of March 27, 2026, in Tehran, Iran. <\/span>\u00a0Photo: Majid Saeedi\/Getty Images<\/span> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The U.S.\u2013Israel war<\/span> on Iran was supposed to end quickly in either an \u201cunconditional surrender\u201d or regime change. Weeks into the conflict, none of it has happened.\u00a0There appears to be little cause for celebration in Washington, notwithstanding Secretary of War Pete Hegseth\u2019s daily jingoistic proclamations.<\/p>\n

There is, of course, even less cause for celebration among the population living under nightly aerial assault in Iran. Pro-war Iranians in the diaspora, too, seem to have tamped down their initial exhilaration over the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.<\/p>\n

It appears that neither the U.S. nor Israel had any plan<\/a> if the Iranian nezam<\/em>, or regime, decided to punch back after being subjected to a massive surprise attack on February 28. Those counterpunches have led to the deaths of U.S. service members, Israeli civilians, and migrant workers<\/a> living in the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

It appears that neither the U.S. nor Israel had any plan if the Iranian regime decided to punch back.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/figure>\n

Then there is the economic cost. Oil and gas production and transit are frozen in the Gulf, thanks to Iran\u2019s missile strikes that hit regional energy infrastructure<\/a> and its closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The markets, accordingly, are in disarray.<\/p>\n

\u201cEveryone,\u201d Mike Tyson once said, \u201chas a plan until they get punched in the mouth.\u201d<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s leaders seem to think they have the upper hand right now \u2014 they have rejected a ceasefire offer from the U.S. outright \u2014 but Donald Trump might have more tricks up his sleeve.<\/p>\n

The U.S. is moving troops into the Persian Gulf<\/a>, potentially with a limited ground invasion looming. Trump, reports suggest, is most likely to go after a small island<\/a> where Iran keeps an oil terminal for its tankers, or one of the islands closer to the actual Strait, which he would like to see open to all sea traffic.<\/p>\n

For now, talks might not be in the offing, despite Trump\u2019s proclamations \u2014 most recently that, despite the \u201cfake news,\u201d talks are ongoing and going well. Even by seizing Kharg Island or any other Iranian territory, however, Trump will not make the Iranians buckle. Short of a full-fledged regime change invasion, taking an Iranian outpost in the Persian Gulf may shift the balance of power, but not topple the government. Talks will still be necessary to end the war.<\/p>\n

So, the assumption at this point is that the regime will survive \u2014 and the ones who really pay for that will be the Iranian people.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Who to Talk To<\/strong><\/h2>\n

There is a generous view about Trump\u2019s intentions: that there actually was a realistic plan, one that wasn\u2019t about forcing capitulation or actual regime change. Though some Iranians, especially the former crown prince Reza Pahlavi and his supporters, had certainly hoped for a war of regime change, it\u2019s plausible that Trump was merely seeking a regime adjustment<\/a>, as he secured in Venezuela.<\/p>\n

Even that plan, though, has fallen apart more than once. As Trump himself has said, when Khamenei and his family were targeted for assassination by Israel in the opening salvo of the war, some of the people that the U.S. had identified as potential Delcy Rodr\u00edguez types were also killed.<\/p>\n

It all makes one wonder whether the close coordination between Israel and the U.S.<\/a> didn\u2019t extend to letting the Israelis know that Trump would be satisfied with a Venezuela outcome. Or, if the Israelis did know, then whether they intentionally undermined those plans.<\/p>\n

If that\u2019s what happened, it would also explain the later Israeli assassination of Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, who appeared to be Iran\u2019s top official in the physical absence of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.<\/p>\n

Killing Larijani would have helped to forestall any deal that Trump might make with the regime. Larijani, a conservative but known as a pragmatist who, as parliament speaker, had supported the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the U.S., could be someone that Trump may have been able to leverage as a partner in a peace deal. Like the other potential interlocutors Trump had in mind, however,\u00a0he ended up very dead.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Ultra-hardliners in Iran are ascendant \u2014\u00a0no thanks to Israeli assassinations of anyone who might be likely to deal.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/figure>\n

Now the person being openly talked about in Washington as someone to talk to is perhaps the last pragmatic conservative in the top leadership, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps like Larijani. Trump has hinted this is who he is speaking to but hasn\u2019t name-checked him, for fear, he said, that Qalibaf too would end up somehow targeted by the Israelis. (This perplexing mouse-and-cat game recalls Bill Clinton\u2019s quip after a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 1996: \u201cWho\u2019s the fucking superpower here?\u201d)<\/p>\n

It\u2019s unclear at this stage if Qalibaf has the mandate to negotiate a deal with Trump \u2014 or whether the Iranian leadership even wants a deal yet. Instead, the Iranians may prefer to continue bleeding the enemy \u2014 and the world economy \u2014 while creating chaos in the region, all to establish a deterrence against future attacks.<\/p>\n

That possibility is only made more likely because ultra-hardliners in Iran are ascendant \u2014\u00a0no thanks to Israeli assassinations of anyone who might be likely to deal or want a deal.<\/p>\n

Larijani, after all, was replaced as Iran\u2019s top security official not by a fellow pragmatist, but by an arch-conservative hardliner and former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr. And the former head of the IRGC, Mohammad Pakpour, who was killed in the strike on Khamenei\u2019s compound on February 28, has been replaced Ahmad Vahidi, arguably more hardline as compared to his two immediate (and assassinated) predecessors.<\/p>\n