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<\/p>\nLee Schlenker is an M.A. candidate in Latin American Studies at Georgetown University\u2019s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\u201cTake a picture<\/span> of a bus, if you see one, because it\u2019s the last one you\u2019ll see here in Cuba,\u201d my taxi driver said. We were headed into Havana in his Chinese electric car during a trip I made to the island earlier this month.<\/p>\n The car is a novelty on Cuba\u2019s crumbling streets, which are crowded with bikes and electric motorcycles and flanked by new solar parks and in-demand diesel generators. It\u2019s also a lifesaver now more than ever amid a near-total oil blockade that has plunged the island\u2019s residents into a profound state of uncertainty, fear, and hopelessness.<\/p>\n As the Trump administration starves<\/a> Cuba of fuel in an attempt to force<\/a> political and economic change on the island, conditions on the ground have grown more dire than I\u2019ve ever witnessed in the 11 years I\u2019ve been traveling there \u2014 including several years working as a journalist during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the country\u2019s tourism-dependent economy was brought to a standstill.<\/p>\n Signs of the oil blockade are everywhere you look. Street corners are turning into trash dumps, transportation is prohibitively expensive, inflation is climbing, food is rotting in ports and refrigerators, and access to running water is intermittent, at best.\u00a0<\/p>\n A friend will not get to see his child be born, as his wife \u2014 one of many Cubans with dual Spanish citizenship \u2014 has flown across the Atlantic to give birth in Spain due to the dire state of Cuba\u2019s state-run hospitals, once among the region\u2019s best.\u00a0<\/p>\n Another friend with severe cataracts, who had undergone months of tests and lab work ahead of a surgery finally scheduled for February, learned the week before that it had been postponed indefinitely. Now, she can no longer see out of her left eye.<\/p>\n A third friend saw the cost of the wedding for which he\u2019d been saving up for years double from one day to the next, as prices soared when the small reserves of fuel his vendors had got down to the last drops.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Trump administration\u2019s wager<\/a> that depriving Cuba of oil would either provoke<\/a> a mass uprising, browbeat<\/a> the island\u2019s authorities into subservience and a change in leadership, beget<\/a> a free-market paradise \u2014 or some ill-defined combination of the three \u2014 is just the most recent in a series<\/a> of \u201cmaximum-pressure\u201d actions Secretary of State Marco Rubio has devised in an attempt to dislodge Cuba\u2019s rulers from power, a longtime goal for him and for many Cuban Americans.\u00a0<\/p>\n This campaign has been ongoing since Trump\u2019s first term, when Rubio, the president\u2019s de facto<\/a>\u00a0secretary of state for Latin America, helped restrict Americans\u2019 ability to travel<\/a> and send money<\/a> to the island; cut off Cuba\u2019s access to international finance<\/a>; shutter<\/a> the U.S. Embassy in Havana; and deploy dozens more sanctions over everything from hotel contracts<\/a> and cruise lines<\/a> to banking<\/a> and investment<\/a>, most of which<\/a> were kept in place under the Biden administration.\u00a0<\/p>\n Now, in Trump\u2019s second term, the maximum-pressure strategy for which Rubio has taken full credit<\/a> has accelerated<\/a> into full gear. Not only has the administration coerced<\/a> Venezuela and Mexico, until recently Cuba\u2019s two largest fuel suppliers, into halting oil shipments to the island, it has also pressured<\/a> Central American and Caribbean countries to drop their medical services contracts with Cuba, privately<\/a> encouraged regional neighbors to sever<\/a> diplomatic ties with the country, and stopped<\/a> issuing most visas for Cuban nationals, including for family reunification, scientific and business exchanges, humanitarian parole, and other purposes.<\/p>\n The Cuban people \u2014 adaptive, proud, and resilient as ever \u2014 have found ways to eke out a living on the island, despite being subjected to the longest and most comprehensive U.S. sanctions regime.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/figure>\n In part due to these sanctions, the island\u2019s economy is projected<\/a> to shrink by more than 7 percent in 2026, while over the past several years, Cuba\u2019s infant mortality rate has nearly doubled<\/a>, and some 20 percent of its population has left<\/a>.<\/p>\n And yet, the Cuban people \u2014 adaptive, proud, and resilient as ever \u2014 have found ways to eke out a living on the island, despite being subjected to the longest<\/a> and most comprehensive<\/a> U.S. sanctions regime<\/a> anywhere on Earth and stymied by insufficient Cuban government efforts<\/a> to kickstart an outdated economy.<\/p>\n Thousands of private businesses, which have also been hamstrung<\/a> by Trump\u2019s oil siege, continue to sell imported, even American, goods, albeit at prices that are exorbitant for the majority of the population. Community projects, churches, and civil society organizations organize ad-hoc soup kitchens to feed the most vulnerable. Foreign governments, even those that have buckled under U.S. pressure like Mexico, continue to send<\/a> vital aid to the island, as do U.S.-based activists<\/a>, religious groups<\/a>, and Cuban Americans<\/a>.<\/p>\n Despite limited access to the most basic supplies, engineers are rolling out<\/a> new solar infrastructure faster than any other country in the world, electrical technicians are restoring<\/a> the country\u2019s collapsed<\/a> power grid even quicker than before, doctors are saving lives<\/a> against all odds, and Cubans are inventing<\/a> workarounds to conditions that seem totally unworkable.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s gambit is to once again<\/a> make the island dependent<\/a> on the United States by simultaneously engineering<\/a> state collapse while controlling<\/a> the resources entering the country\u2019s nascent private sector. This strategy will only exacerbate<\/a> rising inequality on the island by drawing clear lines around who gets to live and who is condemned to die<\/a>.<\/p>\n As the president floats \u201ctaking over<\/a>\u201d Cuba by means \u201cfriendly\u201d or not<\/a> \u2014 amid secret<\/a> negotiations<\/a> rife with speculation<\/a>, misinformation<\/a>, and trial balloons<\/a> \u2014 it\u2019s those who depend the most on public services to survive, rather than well-connected, middle-class entrepreneurs, who will have no other choice but to seek refuge<\/a> on U.S. shores or perish before making it that far, if the state collapses<\/a>.<\/p>\n Despite these dire circumstances, Cubans are increasingly optimistic that a negotiated solution with the U.S. that avoids<\/a> military action and tangibly improves<\/a> quality of life on the island \u2014 not entirely dissimilar from the one President Barack Obama pursued<\/a> a decade ago \u2014 might be possible.<\/p>\n The Cuban people want a deal \u2014 whether economic or political \u2014 to happen now, not later.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/figure>\n While Rubio has disputed<\/a> recent reports that the U.S. only seeks to remove Cuba\u2019s president and keep the rest of its power structure intact, he also indicated<\/a> he may be open to gradual, economic reforms<\/a> on the island, as opposed<\/a> to the maximalist, unconditional political changes he has long demanded \u2014 a red line<\/a> for Cuban authorities. To prevent outright humanitarian collapse, the administration has authorized<\/a> fuel sales, including from Venezuela<\/a>, to Cuba\u2019s private sector \u2014 some of which are already arriving<\/a> \u2014 and sent<\/a> humanitarian aid to hurricane-stricken eastern Cuba through the Catholic Church.<\/p>\n Cuban authorities \u2014 with their backs up against the wall<\/a> and no assurances<\/a> that a Russian crude oil tanker barreling<\/a> toward the Caribbean won\u2019t be intercepted<\/a> by U.S. Coast Guard cutters off the island\u2019s northeast coast \u2014 have responded to U.S. pressure by releasing<\/a> political prisoners, loosening<\/a> restrictions on private enterprise, and making<\/a> important, if long-overdue, overtures to Cuba\u2019s diaspora to reconcile<\/a> with their homeland. Rubio has responded<\/a> that these changes aren\u2019t \u201cdramatic\u201d enough and the island needs \u201cnew leaders,\u201d while other administration officials prepare<\/a> indictments against Cuban leaders and threaten<\/a> that the switch from negotiation to military action could be imminent.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n\n
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