China\u2019s next five-year plan, set to be published this week, will help dictate how fast the top polluter can cut greenhouse gas emissions and the extent of new support for clean technology sectors, policy settings that are critical to determining the world\u2019s success in tackling climate change.<\/p>\n
Policymakers gathering in Beijing from March 5 for the National People\u2019s Congress, China\u2019s flagship annual political meeting, will review progress on green goals and, most importantly, endorse economic and policy strategy through 2030 \u2013 President Xi Jinping\u2019s deadline for the nation to peak its carbon pollution.<\/p>\n
Though the relentless adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles has begun to limit growth in China\u2019s climate footprint \u2013 with one analysis concluding carbon dioxide emissions fell 0.3% in 2025 \u2013 there are concerns the nation\u2019s new strategy will focus more on stimulating growth in green manufacturing than on accelerating efforts to minimise greenhouse gases.<\/p>\n
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As pressure mounts on the Chinese government to boost growth, create jobs and compete with the US, \u201cfocusing on green industries and technologies helps Xi to advance all three of these goals,\u201d said Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at the Asia Society\u2019s Center for China Analysis. However, \u201cthe trade-off is a plateauing in China\u2019s ambition when it comes to emissions reductions.\u201d<\/p>\n
Data published Saturday indicated China has missed a flagship climate target set in its previous five-year plan, to lower carbon emissions intensity per unit of GDP by 18% through 2025. A 5% reduction last year would take the cumulative decline to about 13% based on past statements.<\/p>\n
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New 2035 climate goals outlined in September pledged a 7% to 10% cut in emissions, and are regarded by many observers as far too timid. Still, those targets, for the first time, address pollutants beyond carbon dioxide and are based on total volumes rather than intensity metrics.<\/p>\n
The degree of ambition outlined in China\u2019s new policy plans, and the speed at which the nation can begin to meaningfully reduce emissions, are critical to international climate efforts. China accounted for about 29% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, compared to the 11% contributed by the US \u2014 the second-ranked polluter.<\/p>\n
Here are some of the key climate policy issues in focus at China\u2019s political gathering:<\/p>\n
Counting emissions\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\nOfficials have signalled the 15th five-year plan will see China shift toward setting climate targets based on total volumes of emissions, alongside carbon intensity \u2014 a measure that\u2019s faced criticism as it can obscure the true extent of progress in cutting pollution.<\/p>\n
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While experts don\u2019t necessarily expect a clear pollution cap,\u00a0the new policies could include language calling for emissions to decline from a peak during the 2026-2030 period, or potentially set out how much they should fall, said Hu Min, co-founder of the Beijing-based Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress.<\/p>\n
Any new carbon intensity target would likely need to be higher than the 18% goal in the previous plan,\u00a0according\u00a0to the\u00a0Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, or CREA. That\u2019s to enable\u00a0China to make up for lost ground and meet commitments made under the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s policies could also set out specific directives to address a wider suite of pollution \u2014\u00a0including methane and nitrous oxide \u2014\u00a0after China\u2019s latest Nationally Determined Contribution lodged with the United Nations pledged to tackle all greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n
Green growth<\/span><\/h2>\nClean energy sectors like solar, EVs and batteries contributed about 11% of China\u2019s gross domestic product last year, and without that contribution the nation would\u2019ve missed its 5% growth target, CREA said\u00a0in a note last month.<\/p>\n
China is likely to offer further backing to manufacturers and also support growth in other decarbonization technologies like energy storage, green hydrogen and nuclear fusion. Officials will probably show more tolerance for\u00a0excess capacity in green technology sectors \u2014\u00a0unlike in mature industries like steel or cement \u2014\u00a0\u00a0??????because China is focused on capturing\u00a0future global demand, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change said in a February report.<\/p>\n
Officials in October\u00a0called for the construction of 100 zero-carbon industrial parks to showcase emissions-reduction initiatives that are seen as having the potential to dramatically cut the climate impact of manufacturing and other\u00a0sectors. Measures are also being introduced to stimulate green consumption, including the purchase of smart home appliances, EVs and organic food.<\/p>\n
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For Hu, \u201cthe key theme is still about green growth\u201d and having \u201cthe green economy as the engine\u201d for economic expansion. \u201cIt\u2019s very important to have certain language, to keep emphasising it, so people believe that it\u2019s long term \u2014 we are not changing,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
Fossil fuels peak<\/span><\/h2>\nIn 2021, Xi called for China to begin reducing its coal consumption in the 15th five-year plan period. However, he has recently used slightly more conservative language \u2014\u00a0instead calling for a peak in the next five years, without referencing any reduction.\u00a0That same language has appeared in proposals for the 15th five-year plan.<\/p>\n
An October policy paper included a call for both coal and oil usage to peak, and was \u201cthe first time such language has appeared in a top-level planning document,\u201d BloombergNEF said in a report last year. A November article in state-owned Xinhua\u00a0argued consumption of the two fuels could peak in\u00a02027 and 2026 respectively.<\/p>\n
Chinese officials have continued to favour the nation\u2019s rich domestic deposits in its power system, putting forward a record number of proposals for new coal-fired power stations last year. And while emissions from transportation and power declined, they rose 12% in the chemical industry as China continued building a huge fleet of new coal-consuming plants to pump out plastics.<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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While experts don\u2019t necessarily expect a clear pollution cap,\u00a0the new policies could include language calling for emissions to decline from a peak during the 2026-2030 period, or potentially set out how much they should fall, said Hu Min, co-founder of the Beijing-based Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress.<\/p>\n
Any new carbon intensity target would likely need to be higher than the 18% goal in the previous plan,\u00a0according\u00a0to the\u00a0Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, or CREA. That\u2019s to enable\u00a0China to make up for lost ground and meet commitments made under the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s policies could also set out specific directives to address a wider suite of pollution \u2014\u00a0including methane and nitrous oxide \u2014\u00a0after China\u2019s latest Nationally Determined Contribution lodged with the United Nations pledged to tackle all greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n
Green growth<\/span><\/h2>\nClean energy sectors like solar, EVs and batteries contributed about 11% of China\u2019s gross domestic product last year, and without that contribution the nation would\u2019ve missed its 5% growth target, CREA said\u00a0in a note last month.<\/p>\n
China is likely to offer further backing to manufacturers and also support growth in other decarbonization technologies like energy storage, green hydrogen and nuclear fusion. Officials will probably show more tolerance for\u00a0excess capacity in green technology sectors \u2014\u00a0unlike in mature industries like steel or cement \u2014\u00a0\u00a0??????because China is focused on capturing\u00a0future global demand, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change said in a February report.<\/p>\n
Officials in October\u00a0called for the construction of 100 zero-carbon industrial parks to showcase emissions-reduction initiatives that are seen as having the potential to dramatically cut the climate impact of manufacturing and other\u00a0sectors. Measures are also being introduced to stimulate green consumption, including the purchase of smart home appliances, EVs and organic food.<\/p>\n
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CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
For Hu, \u201cthe key theme is still about green growth\u201d and having \u201cthe green economy as the engine\u201d for economic expansion. \u201cIt\u2019s very important to have certain language, to keep emphasising it, so people believe that it\u2019s long term \u2014 we are not changing,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
Fossil fuels peak<\/span><\/h2>\nIn 2021, Xi called for China to begin reducing its coal consumption in the 15th five-year plan period. However, he has recently used slightly more conservative language \u2014\u00a0instead calling for a peak in the next five years, without referencing any reduction.\u00a0That same language has appeared in proposals for the 15th five-year plan.<\/p>\n
An October policy paper included a call for both coal and oil usage to peak, and was \u201cthe first time such language has appeared in a top-level planning document,\u201d BloombergNEF said in a report last year. A November article in state-owned Xinhua\u00a0argued consumption of the two fuels could peak in\u00a02027 and 2026 respectively.<\/p>\n
Chinese officials have continued to favour the nation\u2019s rich domestic deposits in its power system, putting forward a record number of proposals for new coal-fired power stations last year. And while emissions from transportation and power declined, they rose 12% in the chemical industry as China continued building a huge fleet of new coal-consuming plants to pump out plastics.<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
For Hu, \u201cthe key theme is still about green growth\u201d and having \u201cthe green economy as the engine\u201d for economic expansion. \u201cIt\u2019s very important to have certain language, to keep emphasising it, so people believe that it\u2019s long term \u2014 we are not changing,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n