{"id":26765,"date":"2026-03-06T06:07:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T06:07:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=26765"},"modified":"2026-03-06T06:07:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T06:07:18","slug":"in-the-iran-war-its-not-the-oil-thats-important-its-the-water","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=26765","title":{"rendered":"In the Iran war, it\u2019s not the oil that\u2019s important\u2014it\u2019s the water"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Risk on! Global relief rally underway<\/strong><\/h2>\n
S&P 500 futures are flat<\/strong> this morning before the opening in New York. The index rose 0.78% yesterday. Asia and Europe are strongly up, and tech stocks are going gangbusters today. Coinbase was up 15% yesterday and another 1.4% in overnight trades.<\/p>\n
TOP STORIES<\/strong><\/p>\n
IRAN<\/strong><\/p>\n
Middle East war now involves 17 different countries<\/strong><\/h2>\n
It\u2019s Day Six of the war with Iran.<\/strong> Israel and Iran continue to exchange missile strikes. Iran said its navy hit a tanker in the north of the Arabian Gulf. U.K. authorities confirmed the hit. That\u2019s significant because the tanker was far from the Strait of Hormuz, which has been the main focus of concern so far. A U.S. submarine torpedoed an Iranian ship in the Indian Ocean, and Sri Lankan authorities are retrieving dozens of bodies. The war is draining the global supply of Patriot missiles needed by Ukraine for its defense against Russia. Nonetheless, Ukraine said it could offer the U.S. interceptor drones to fend off attacks from Iranian Shahed drones. Italy said it would send air defense equipment to Gulf nations being attacked. Azerbaijan says it was attacked by two Iranian drones. That brings to 17 the number of countries drawn into the conflict so far, by Fortune\u2019<\/em>s count: Iran, Israel, the U.S., the U.K., Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Italy, Bahrain, Oman, Lebanon, Jordan, Cyprus, France, and Germany.<\/p>\n
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President Trump has about a week<\/strong> to sort out the global oil supply chain before prices start going through the roof, according to Fortune<\/em>\u2019s Jordan Blum.<\/li>\n
Pain points incoming? <\/strong>\u201cThere is plenty of runway before the [U.S.] economy begins to hit pain points that result in a change in household and business consumption, investment, and hiring. Those pain points will not kick in until oil hits approximately $125 a barrel,\u201d according to RSM analyst Joe Brusuelas. At that point, it would become a drag on GDP growth and boost inflation with \u201cdownside risks to growth, inflation, unemployment, and the continuation of the business cycle.\u201d\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
It\u2019s not the oil that is important. It\u2019s the water.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n
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Iran has attacked its neighbors in reprisal for not supporting it against the U.S. and Israel. But one thing Iran has not<\/em> done is attack Gulf countries\u2019 water supplies. Many of its desert kingdom neighbors are dependent on seawater desalination plants. <\/strong>\u201cThe targeting of key infrastructure, such as water desalination plants \u2026 would mark important escalations of the conflict,\u201d Macquarie analysts Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry told clients recently. \u201cWater desalination has always been a key vulnerability in the Gulf states. In one report from several years ago, it was estimated that a hostile act against Saudi Arabia\u2019s water infrastructure would force authorities to evacuate Riyadh (with a population of 8.5 million) within a week.\u201d Saudi Arabia\u2019s Jubail Desalination Plant produces 1.6 million cubic meters of water per day. According to the U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia, in the event of an attack on Jubail, \u201cRiyadh would have to evacuate \u2026 The current structure of the Saudi government could not exist without the Jubail Desalination Plant.\u201d<\/p>\n
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So why hasn\u2019t Iran targeted them?<\/strong> One clue may be that the regime is sending a signal by not<\/em> taking out its neighbors\u2019 most vulnerable infrastructure. The message might be, \u201cWe can make it worse, but we are currently choosing not to. Maybe you could urge the U.S. to wind this down before we get there.\u201d Back in 2025, Iran signaled it was willing to end its 12-day war with Israel by muting its retaliatory attacks on U.S. sites and Qatar. Peace swiftly followed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
What\u2019s it like owning ships in the Strait of Hormuz?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n
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Fortune\u2019<\/em>s Diane Brady talked to Angeliki Frangou <\/strong>(above), the fourth-generation owner and CEO of Navios Maritime Partners, which operates a global fleet of more than 170 bulkers, tankers, and container ships. She said attacks on her ships in the strait are \u201cjust a part of what we are living.\u201d Shipping costs in the region have gone up by 4X, she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cEverything is about national security. It is about mercantilism. It is about friend?shoring,\u201d she says. \u201cWe went from just-in-time to just-in-case, getting resources from where we think is most secure.\u201d For those reasons, she is a pessimist about the near-term future of free trade: \u201cThe efficiency of trade and globalization, low tariffs and efficiency, is not part of the equation.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are watching history in a lot of ways,\u201d she said. \u201cThe WTO world we built our companies in basically doesn\u2019t exist today. We are living in a different world.\u201d<\/p>\n
SPACEX<\/strong><\/p>\n
Musk\u2019s SpaceX IPO could hit $1.7 trillion<\/strong><\/h2>\n
The stats surrounding Elon Musk\u2019s planned IPO for SpaceX are astonishing,<\/strong> Fortune<\/em>\u2019s Shawn Tully writes. Analyst Franco Granda of PitchBook told him that a $1.75 trillion mark is justifiable based on SpaceX\u2019s gigantic growth opportunities. Even at $1.5 trillion, the SpaceX debut would rank as the second-most-valuable IPO in history\u2014trailing only Saudi Aramco at $1.7 trillion\u2013plus in late 2019, and leagues ahead of Alibaba\u2019s $169 billion in 2014. A $50 billion raise through an IPO would surpass the $44 billion raised through 90 IPOs last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE<\/strong><\/p>\n
Leopold Aschenbrenner\u2019s $5.5 billion AI bet<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Leopold Aschenbrenner\u2019s Situational Awareness AI hedge fund now reports roughly $5.5 billion in U.S. equity exposure, spread across nearly 30 holdings, Fortune<\/em>\u2019s Sharon Goldman notes. Among the new or expanded positions are Bloom Energy, a fuel-cell power company that is now the fund\u2019s single largest holding; CoreWeave, an AI cloud infrastructure provider; and Cipher Mining, a large crypto-mining firm. Aschenbrenner appears to be betting that the most valuable assets in the AI era may not be algorithms, but electricity and computing power.<\/p>\n
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Nvidia is going into space:<\/strong> \u201cNvidia is looking for an Orbital Datacenter System Architect to help define and build products for AI in orbit.\u201d See the job ad here. Hat tip to Jack Kuhr for spotting it.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
CHART OF THE DAY<\/strong><\/p>\n
Apple never joined the AI capex race<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n
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Chart from <\/em>a1<\/em>6z via FactSet and Snacks<\/em><\/p>\n
NUMBER OF THE DAY<\/strong><\/p>\n
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$290 million<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>\n
The amount of money Palantir cofounder and chairman Peter Thiel made after selling about 2 million shares. He still holds about 68.9 million shares through LLCs he controls, and the value is about $10 billion, <\/em>Fortune\u2019s Amanda Gerut <\/em>discovered in the bowels of the SEC<\/em>.<\/em><\/p>\n
QUICK HITS<\/strong><\/p>\n
A SELECTION FROM THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/strong><\/p>\n
Trade Court Orders Trump Administration to Jump-start Tariff Refund Process \u2013 Axios<\/p>\n
Morgan Stanley Lays Off 2,500 Employees Across All Divisions \u2013 Wall Street Journal<\/em><\/p>\n
China Sets Economy\u2019s Growth Target Below 5% for First Time in Decades \u2013 the New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n
\u2018Everyone\u2019s Calling\u2019: Demand for Private Jets Soars by Up to 300% Amid Iran War \u2013 the Guardian<\/em><\/p>\n
ONE MORE THING<\/strong><\/p>\n
Palantir CEO thinks governments might nationalize AI<\/strong><\/h2>\n
There\u2019s a video clip of Alex Karp currently going viral among tech nerds that shows him talking about the future of AI at an a16z-sponsored conference. In it, he argues that \u201cif Silicon Valley believes we\u2019re going to take everyone\u2019s white-collar jobs \u2026 and screw the military \u2026 If you don\u2019t think that\u2019s going to lead to the nationalization of our technology\u2014you\u2019re retarded \u2026 This is where that path is going.\u201d Much of the commentary so far has focused on his offensive language. But Fortune<\/em>\u2019s Catherina Gioino thinks we should pay more attention to his alarmingly dystopian point: If AI really does destroy everyone\u2019s jobs, then \u201cthe danger for our industry is that you get a famous horseshoe effect, where there is only one thing people agree on, and that\u2019s that this is not paying the bills and our industry should be nationalized,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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