There is no doubt that Eskom is performing much better than it was a year to five years ago \u2013 when South Africa regularly had to endure Stage 4 load shedding \u2013 but the real reasons for the recovery in the availability of electricity are not to be found inside the state-owned operator of ageing coal-fired power stations.<\/p>\n
Figures in the latest report from Statistics SA on the generation of electricity and available for distribution show that Eskom actually distributed nearly 11% less to SA users in January 2026 than it did a year ago.<\/p>\n
It had 13 007 gigawatt hours (GWh) available for distribution in SA this January compared with 14 554GWh in January 2025.<\/p>\n
Read:\u00a0Moment of truth for South Africa\u2019s electricity reform<\/p>\n
Current generation is barely higher than during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the whole of the country shut down and did not need much electricity. Eskom then produced 12 640GWh of electricity for distribution in SA per month.<\/p>\n
The real reason we have more power<\/strong><\/p>\n That electricity seems to be readily available has more to do with lower demand due to lacklustre economic growth as well as the growth in new (and renewable) power generation.<\/p>\n Stats SA says electricity generation decreased by 6.2% year on year in January 2026, although generation was higher than in December when demand is usually lower.<\/p>\n \u201cSeasonally adjusted electricity generation increased by 1.5% in January 2026 compared with December 2025, following month-on-month changes of -1.4% in December 2025 and -1.3% in November 2025,\u201d according to the report.<\/p>\n \u201cSeasonally adjusted electricity generation decreased by 2.5% in the three months ended January 2026 compared with the previous three months.\u201d<\/p>\n Moneyweb worked through 25 years\u2019 worth of Stats SA reports, extracting figures to track what Eskom has been delivering.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The numbers show that Eskom\u2019s production is steadily falling, while that of independent power producers (IPPs) is rising.<\/p>\n Electricity available for distribution from Eskom (GWh)<\/strong><\/p>\n Source: Data extracted from Stats SA reports<\/p>\n ADVERTISEMENT<\/p>\n CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n From 2000 to 2008, electricity distribution increased due to higher demand during a period when the economy was growing. The 2008 global financial crisis hit demand (and supply, since electricity cannot be stored).<\/p>\n It\u2019s been downhill since then.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n From a peak of above 20 000GWh in the first decade of the 2000s, Eskom\u2019s distribution of electricity has declined steadily to the current levels of below 15 000GWh.<\/p>\n Renewables<\/strong><\/p>\n The Stats SA figures of the last 25 years disclose that the production of electricity from other producers however, has been increasing rapidly.<\/p>\n IPPs generated only 725GWh in 2000, less than 5% of total production.<\/p>\n This had increased to 3 009GWh by January 2026, and currently comprises nearly 20% of the total electricity running through Eskom\u2019s distribution network.<\/p>\n Electricity available from other producers is on the up (GWh)<\/strong><\/p>\n Source: Data extracted from Stats SA reports<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Small rooftop solar installations and private medium and large off-grid renewable systems are growing in number \u2013 fuelled by steep increases in the price of Eskom electricity.<\/p>\n The sharp rise in the oil price from around $60 per barrel at the beginning of 2026 to the current $84 due to the war in the Middle East, will impact energy prices overall, Eskom\u2019s viability and local electricity prices too.<\/p>\n Read: The implications are being noticed.<\/p>\n David McDonald, CEO of SolarAfrica, says electricity is already very expensive in SA and there are huge risks in Eskom\u2019s old power stations that make electricity supply fragile.<\/p>\n \u2018The end of\u00a0load shedding!\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n ADVERTISEMENT:<\/p>\n CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cAt this year\u2019s State of the Nation Address, President Cyril Ramaphosa declared load shedding a thing of the past,\u201d says McDonald.<\/p>\n \u201cNot even the official end of the Covid-19 pandemic was announced with as much assuredness.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n He describes the pandemic as another nationwide crisis that almost left our economy on the brink of collapse.\u00a0\u201cSo for a country that has spent more than a decade planning daily life and business-as-usual around blackout schedules, you can imagine that this was music to the ears of South Africans.\u201d<\/p>\n McDonald acknowledges that, operationally, things have improved.<\/p>\n \u201cEnergy availability has increased. Maintenance is finally being done. Diesel usage is better managed than it was at the height of the crisis. But we need to remember that stability is not the finish line.<\/p>\n \u201cIf anything, the conversation has simply moved away from the whether the lights will stay on to what will it cost.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n \u201cFor many commercial and industrial users, the question of cost has become the real crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n Cost now the real crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n McDonald says tariff increases have compounded well above inflation over the last five years.<\/p>\n \u201cThe National Energy Regulator of South Africa [Nersa] recently confirmed that tariff adjustments will be higher than initially anticipated, with a 5.36% increase effectively rising to 8.76% following calculation corrections.<\/p>\n \u201cCost certainty is critical, as businesses need predictability if they are to accurately forecast, invest and grow.<\/p>\n \u201cInitially, the narrative was that abnormal hikes were driven by diesel spend during load shedding, which made sense at the time, given that emergency generation is expensive,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n \u201cBut while load shedding has eased, the trajectory of price increases has not. Electricity is one of the biggest input costs for businesses and when that line item becomes unpredictable, it stalls business decisions that could unlock growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Read: ADVERTISEMENT:<\/p>\n CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n There are several reasons for high tariff increases. Eskom carries a significant debt burden and coal plants are rapidly ageing, with a significant portion of the fleet running at availability levels that would not be acceptable in most developed markets.<\/p>\n A large percentage of the coal-fired power-station fleet will need to be retired by 2030. When those units go down, gas and diesel generation will inevitably step in.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile they may have high availability factors, they are not cheap. These costs don\u2019t just disappear into the system; somewhere down the line they\u2019re passed on to paying customers,\u201d says McDonald.<\/p>\n He says fragility is disguised as stability \u2013 \u201cthere is an uncomfortable truth here\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Read:<\/p>\n \u201cWhen we talk about improved energy availability, we often look at the blended number across the system, including renewables, gas and diesel that naturally perform at higher availability levels than ageing coal plants.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you isolate the coal fleet, the picture is less comforting. Around 30% of units are under maintenance at any given time and a meaningful portion of capacity will need to be retired within the next five years.<\/p>\n \u201cGiven that there are no new coal stations waiting in the wings and our current stability is heavily supported by expensive backup generation, it may be more precarious than we realise.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile this doesn\u2019t mean load shedding is inevitable, it does mean that maintaining this stability is going to cost us,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n Another risk is emerging \u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n \u201cWhen tariffs continue to escalate aggressively, customers look at alternatives,\u201d says McDonald.<\/p>\n Read:\u00a0South Africans are leaving the electricity network<\/p>\n \u201cIf even 10% of paying customers begin reducing grid reliance significantly, the revenue base narrows, and the pressure on the remaining customers intensifies.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is the start of what many refer to as grid defection \u2013 it doesn\u2019t happen overnight, but the longer prices rise without structural reform, the more businesses will pursue other options and the more significant the impact.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
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