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As the NBA trade deadline approached in early February, fans waited anxiously to see if star player Giannis Antetokounmpo would be moved to another team. The buzz around the Milwaukee Bucks forward, who could raise the title hopes of any franchise, reached a point where on the platform Kalshi users could place money on whether or not he would be traded.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The window to bet on Antetokounmpo\u2019s future closed on February 5th, and a total of $23 million was placed on the wager. To the surprise of some, Antetokounmpo did not end up getting traded. An even bigger surprise came the following day when Antetokounmpo announced that he was partnering with Kalshi and becoming a shareholder. \u201cI like to win. It\u2019s clear to me Kalshi is going to be a winner and I\u2019m excited to be getting involved,\u201d he said in a statement.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This timing angered fans on social media, some of whom accused Antetokounmpo of intentionally stirring trade rumors to drive traffic on the bet. Antetokounmpo has not publicly responded to this backlash. The controversy also comes as some are worrying that prediction markets could exacerbate conflict-of\u2013interest concerns in a sports world already beset by widespread betting scandals.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cOne of the things in terms of the ethical issues [of the partnership] is the timing,\u201d said Melinda Roth, a professor of business, finance, and sports law at Washington and Lee University. \u201cThe timing really puts a spotlight on how prediction markets work, who is allowed to buy contracts, and who has inside information.\u201d<\/p>\n
Prediction markets are platforms where users can wager on the outcome of a variety of future events, whether it\u2019s politics, pop culture, and increasingly, sports. People can put money on which movie will win best picture at the Oscars, or whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in March.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Antetokounmpo has not violated any of the NBA\u2019s rules, as his shares in Kalshi are reportedly less than 1% of the platform\u2019s value, in keeping with the league\u2019s policies. The prediction market giant is valued at about $11 billion, meaning that the NBA star\u2019s investment could be up to about $110 million.\u00a0<\/p>\n
NBA commissioner Adam Silver called Antetokounmpo\u2019s stake in Kalshi a \u201cminiscule investment\u201d when interviewed about it two weeks ago. When asked for further comment, the NBA referred Fortune back to the response Silver gave during that press conference.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Kalshi and Octagon, the agency that represents Antetokounmpo, did not respond to requests for comment.\u00a0<\/p>\n
One of the most popular NBA players endorsing Kalshi is the latest indicator of just how mainstream prediction markets have become. On Super Bowl weekend, for example, the two largest prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, registered nearly $1.2 billion in trading volume.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The prediction market industry was considered niche until the 2024 election, when platforms like Kalshi correctly pointed to President Donald Trump\u2019s victory in contrast to other major polls. Trump, whose son Donald Trump Jr. is a strategic advisor to Kalshi and on the advisory board of Polymarket, has overseen an administration that has been largely supportive of prediction markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The rise of Kalshi and its main competitor Polymarket is creating tense competition with traditional sportsbooks, like FanDuel and DraftKings. An analyst at the investment bank Citizens estimates that prediction markets are taking about $8 billion each year from traditional gambling companies. Prediction markets differ from traditional sportsbooks because they are a peer-to-peer platform for event contracts, whereas in sportsbooks, users place bets against the house.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Other major financial companies, like Robinhood and Coinbase, also have prediction market platforms. FanDuel and DraftKings, the two major sportsbooks, launched their own prediction markets platforms in December.<\/p>\n
Antetokounmpo\u2019s embrace of Kalshi comes as prediction markets face increased scrutiny about their potential for insider trading. During the Super Bowl, an anonymous trader on Polymarket suspiciously won about $17,000 by cashing in on almost all of their 17 bets on what would happen during the halftime show. Similar questions about Polymarket were raised in January when a bettor won more than $400,000 by correctly predicting Nicol\u00e1s Maduro\u2019s ouster. Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.\u00a0<\/p>\n
A few days ago, Kalshi cracked down on insider trading, fining and suspending a former California gubernatorial candidate and a MrBeast employee for suspicious activity on its platform.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Prediction markets and traditional sports betting are regulated differently. Wagers on prediction markets are considered to be event contracts and are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Traditional sportsbooks, on the other hand, are regulated as gambling at the state level.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
The optics of Antetokounmpo\u2019s tie-up with Kalshi are also not helped by the recent betting scandals plaguing the NBA. In October, Miami Heat player Terry Rozier and Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups were arrested for charges related to illegal sports betting and rigged poker games, respectively. And in 2024, another player, Jontay Porter, pleaded guilty to charges that he manipulated his play to help co-conspirators win bets. He received a lifetime ban from the NBA for his actions.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Professional basketball is not the only sport grappling with betting scandals. In November, the Department of Justice accused MLB pitcher Emmanuel Clase of rigging pitches to ensure that gamblers won bets. There have also been a litany of other sports betting scandals, in the NFL and in the NCAA, since the Supreme Court struck down a federal ban on sports betting in 2018.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWe let a genie out of the box and we don\u2019t know what that genie is going to do,\u201d said Jay Zagorsky, a professor at the Boston University Questrom School of Business, about the rise of prediction markets and its effect on sports betting for the masses. \u201cThe genie is now accessible to far more people, with far less regulation and safeguards.\u201d<\/p>\n
A battle is brewing between states and prediction markets, and that battle is heading to court. Kalshi is now facing 19 lawsuits, including from state gambling commissions and attorneys general, as some states call prediction markets \u201cunlicensed sports gambling.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Michael Selig, the Trump-appointed chair of the CTFC, is fiercely defending the prediction market industry. In a video posted to X last week, he said prediction markets, \u201cprovide useful functions for society by allowing everyday Americans to hedge commercial risks.\u201d<\/p>\n
Two weeks ago, at the NBA\u2019s All-Star Weekend, Portland Trail Blazers\u2019 player Damian Lillard had just won the 3-point contest and saw Antetokounmpo in the stadium tunnel right after his victory. The two embraced and Lillard asked him, \u201cDid you place a \u2026 on Kalshi?\u201d\u00a0 Likely mindful of optics, he did not say the word bet out loud. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
#Giannis #Antetokounmpos #partnership #prediction #market #latest #challenge #sports<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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