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Yes or no? It\u2019s a simple question that now drives more than US$13 billion (\u00a39.7 billion) a month on prediction markets \u2013 companies like Polymarket, PredictIt and Kalshi.<\/p>\n
These firms run digital platforms that use blockchain technology to let anonymous users gamble on uncertainty and place \u201cpredictions\u201d rather than bets. Users can buy a yes or no \u201cevent contract\u201d on anything from strikes on Iran to the most popular show on Netflix and the return of Jesus.<\/p>\n
Politics and popular culture have merged, with reports that Kalshi and others are becoming a new \u201cstock market for trends\u201d in the so-called \u201cattention economy\u201d. Everything is now monetised.<\/p>\n
However, several incidents have brought the politics of prediction markets into sharp relief. These include large volumes of predictions (or bets) placed in the hours before election results in Portugal, the presidential coup in Venezuela, and in Israel, where two people have been charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.<\/p>\n
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In the US, where Polymarket has its headquarters, the platform has been controversial since its launch a few years ago. The website has been blocked there for most of its short life, including during the country\u2019s 2024 presidential election. But it recently relaunched in its home country \u2013 with President Donald Trump\u2019s support. The president\u2019s son, Donald Trump Jr, serves in advisory roles at both Polymarket and Kalshi.<\/p>\n
One advertising slogan for Kalshi states: \u201cThe world\u2019s gone mad, trade it\u201d. However, not all the world can trade.<\/p>\n
As a geographer, I\u2019m fascinated by how online gambling is now a global game, in many cases bypassing national legislation on gambling laws via VPNs. My latest project charts how traditional political gambling \u2013 through licensed bookmakers or online gambling companies \u2013 is now simultaneously bordered and borderless. National laws on gambling remain important, but there is increasing fluidity with the rise of VPNs and digital platforms. This trend is creeping into prediction markets too.<\/p>\n
Polymarket is banned or geo-blocked in several countries including the UK, France and Belgium due to regulatory and licensing challenges (and now Portugal after the election incident). Its blockchain technology and use of cryptocurrency are complex and hard to regulate. The space between gambling and gaming is proving to be a grey area for many countries to legislate in.<\/p>\n
Even if countries don\u2019t allow their citizens to access prediction markets, the world is still betting on those nations and their next election or leadership contest. This could be the future of election betting \u2013 and possibly the future of geopolitics \u2013 if world events can be influenced by prediction market activity.<\/p>\n
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One of the key questions in the debate is whether this is gambling. Or is it simply users drawing on their expertise, perhaps more akin to playing the stock market? There have been suggestions that prediction markets offer a loophole for gambling restrictions. The controversies all come down to whether there is insider information, a very serious legal minefield and especially in the context of military or classified information.<\/p>\n
Increasingly, viewers see prediction market \u201codds\u201d appearing on the rolling coverage or infographics of major US news channels such as CNN and CNBC. These are not pollsters\u2019 or even bookmakers\u2019 odds, but rather the current yes or no trends. So is this really data, or just vibes?<\/p>\n
The increasing professionalisation of prediction markets embedded into news infrastructures is significant. Indeed, people have argued that the websites of prediction markets themselves are now consumed like live news channels. As a result, these platforms are driving huge amounts of revenue, with Polymarket alone valued at US$9 billion (\u00a36.7 billion) in October 2025. There are forecasts that together these platforms will reach a trillion dollars in trading volume by 2030.<\/p>\n