{"id":23524,"date":"2026-02-20T09:30:19","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T09:30:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=23524"},"modified":"2026-02-20T09:30:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T09:30:19","slug":"cuba-is-quickly-nearing-a-point-of-no-return-as-the-u-s-weaponizes-its-venezuelan-oil-supplies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=23524","title":{"rendered":"Cuba is quickly nearing a point of no return as the U.S. weaponizes its Venezuelan oil supplies"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

The Trump administration\u2019s embargo on Cuba\u2014effectively cutting off 75% of the communist-ruled island\u2019s crude oil supplies\u2014is quickly pushing the Havana leadership to a point of no return amid escalating fuel shortages and frequent blackouts.<\/p>\n

\n

Some six weeks after the U.S. violently ousted Venezuelan leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, and with the U.S. having seized control of that country\u2019s oil production, geopolitical and energy analysts said the next \u201cdomino\u201d in Cuba is close to toppling under economic pressure unless a diplomatic resolution is reached. <\/p>\n

The evolving situation could include potential conflict with Russia, which is aiming to supply Cuba with oil tanker shipments. While a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis 64 years later is highly unlikely, the U.S. could end up seizing Russian tankers, something that has already occurred with ships en route to Venezuela. Such moves would escalate already heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia, said Skip York, a global energy expert for Rice University\u2019s Baker Institute for Public Policy.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fuel situation in Cuba will get pretty dire pretty fast. That\u2019s going to put tremendous pressure on the government because energy\u2014whether it\u2019s oil or electricity\u2014is the lifeblood of any country,\u201d York said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd, if the U.S. stays the course, they will board any sanctioned tankers that are heading toward Cuba,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Not only is Cuba facing dwindling vehicle and jet fuel supplies, but most of Cuba\u2019s electric grid relies on crude oil, too. The island has very limited natural gas and renewable energy assets.<\/p>\n

Cuba produces only a little bit of oil domestically, not nearly enough to sustain itself. About 75% of Cuba\u2019s oil imports typically come from Venezuela and Mexico. The U.S. cut off Venezuelan supplies to Cuba at the beginning of this year. And a Trump executive order at the end of January, which threatened tariffs against countries that supply Cuba with petroleum, led to Mexico reluctantly ceasing exports as well. In the meantime, Cuba is leaning on whatever reserve stockpiles it has left.<\/p>\n

Cuba says Trump is creating a dangerous precedent of using tariffs to strangle and starve individual nations. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel accused the Trump administration of acting with a \u201cfascist, criminal, and genocidal nature of a clique that has hijacked the interests of the American people for purely personal ends.\u201d<\/p>\n

Russia said the U.S. is trying to \u201csuffocate\u201d Cuba, and said it planned to send more oil supplies to Cuba. But how such plans would play out is not yet clear. In the meantime, Russia has suspended civilian flights to Cuba after evacuating its tourists from there.<\/p>\n

The White House has confirmed the embargo remains in effect, and argues that it is holding Cuba accountable for its alleged long support of regional instability and terrorism.<\/p>\n

Speaking earlier this week on Air Force One, Trump said, \u201cCuba is right now a failed nation, and they don\u2019t even have jet fuel to get airplanes to take off. They\u2019re clogging up their runway.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump argued the Cuban leadership \u201cshould absolutely make a deal,\u201d not stating what the U.S. is demanding in return.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are talking,\u201d Trump added. \u201cIn the meantime, there\u2019s an embargo. There\u2019s no oil, there\u2019s no money, there\u2019s no anything.\u201d<\/p>\n

What happens next<\/h2>\n

Forcing political change in Cuba\u2014even if not a full regime change\u2014could mark a strong accomplishment for the Trump administration. Prominent figures in Trump\u2019s inner circle include \u201cFlorida hawks\u201d such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is Cuban-American, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, said Fernando Ferreira, director of the geopolitical risk service at Rapidan Energy Group.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt could mark the success of this \u2018Donroe Doctrine,\u2019 accomplishing regime change or political change in two U.S. adversaries in the region,\u201d Ferreira said. \u201cStarting with Venezuela, there\u2019s a very clear domino impact. Cuba has been largely dependent on Venezuela for oil supplies and for political cover.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe lack of fuel supplies into Cuba is having fairly severe impacts,\u201d Ferreira added. \u201cIt\u2019s going to have a humanitarian impact in Havana and the rest of Cuba. What I don\u2019t know is how quickly or to what extent it\u2019s going to lead to political change on the island.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rubio is taking the lead on such matters with a \u201cpretty long leash,\u201d York said. Rubio is likely to be more \u201cadversarial\u201d <\/strong>with Cuba than typical U.S. diplomats, but it still comes down to Trump being the moderator and dealmaker.<\/p>\n

Diaz-Canel is the first non-Castro to lead Cuba in 60 years. A key question is whether he is willing to find a resolution with the U.S. or if he will be perceived as weak for compromising with Trump, York said.<\/p>\n

\u201c[Diaz-Canel] might be concerned about his legacy and his physical safety if he\u2019s the weak chain that broke,\u201d York added.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s unclear what the U.S. would require in a deal as well. Is leadership change on the table? An opening up of the communist economy? Reducing Cuba\u2019s ties with Russia and China?<\/p>\n

What we do know is that Cuba\u2019s leadership has relatively limited options and that the energy crisis could further escalate rapidly.<\/p>\n

\u201cCuba is a pretty opaque part of the Western Hemisphere,\u201d York said. \u201cMy guess is over the next few weeks, few months, that curtain is going to get drawn back a little bit, and we\u2019re going to get to see the inner workings of the Cuban government.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

#Cuba #quickly #nearing #point #return #U.S #weaponizes #Venezuelan #oil #supplies<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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