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Even as technology companies are projected to spend more than $5 trillion globally on earth-based data centers by the end of the decade, Elon Musk is arguing the future of AI computing power lies in space\u2014powered by solar energy\u2014and that the economics and engineering to make it work could align within a few years.<\/p>\n
Over the past three weeks, SpaceX has filed plans with the Federal Communications Commission for what amounts to a million-satellite data-center network. Musk has also said he plans to merge his AI startup, xAI, with SpaceX to pursue orbital data centers. And at an all-hands meeting last week, he told xAI employees the company would ultimately need a factory on the moon to build AI satellites\u2014along with a massive catapult to launch them into space.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe lowest-cost place to put AI will be in space, and that will be true within two years, maybe three at the latest,\u201d Musk said at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos this January.<\/p>\n
Musk is not alone in floating the idea. Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai has said Google is exploring \u201cmoonshot\u201d concepts for data centers in space later this decade. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has warned that the industry is \u201crunning out of electricity\u201d and has discussed space-based infrastructure as a potential long-term solution. And Amazon and Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos has said orbital data centers could become the next step in space ventures designed to benefit earth. <\/p>\n
Still, while Musk and some other bulls argue that space-based AI could become cost-effective within a few years, many experts say anything approaching meaningful scale remains decades away\u2014especially as the bulk of AI investment continues to flow into terrestrial infrastructure. That includes Musk\u2019s own Colossus supercomputer in Memphis, which analysts estimate will cost tens of billions of dollars.<\/p>\n
They emphasize that while limited orbital computing is feasible, constraints around power generation, heat dissipation, launch logistics, and cost make space a poor substitute for earth-based data centers anytime soon.<\/p>\n
The renewed interest reflects mounting pressure on the industry to find ways around the physical limits of earth-based infrastructure, including strained power grids, rising electricity costs, and environmental concerns. Talk of orbital data centers has circulated for years, largely as a speculative or long-term concept; but now, experts say, there is additional urgency as the AI boom is increasingly dependent on ever more power to support the training and running of energy-hungry AI models.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cA lot of smart people really believe that it won\u2019t be too many years before we can\u2019t generate enough power to satisfy what we\u2019re trying to develop with AI,\u201d said Jeff Thornburg, CEO of Portal Space Systems and a SpaceX veteran who led development of SpaceX\u2019s Raptor engine. \u201cIf that is indeed true, we have to find alternate sources of energy. That\u2019s why this has become so attractive to Elon and others.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, while the concept of data centers in space has moved beyond science fiction, it is unlikely to displace the massive AI facilities now being built on earth anytime soon.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is something people are cynical about because it\u2019s just technologically not feasible at the moment,\u201d said Kathleen Curlee, a research analyst at Georgetown University\u2019s Center for Security and Emerging Technology who studies the U.S. space economy. \u201cWe\u2019re being told the timeline for this is 2030, 2035\u2014and I really don\u2019t think that\u2019s possible.\u201d<\/p>\n
Thornburg agreed that the hurdles are formidable, even if the underlying physics are sound. \u201cWe know how to launch rockets; we know how to put spacecraft into orbit; and we know how to build solar arrays to generate power,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd companies like SpaceX are showing we can mass-produce space vehicles at lower cost. With vehicles like Starship, you can carry a lot of equipment to orbit.\u201d As far as it being the right thing to try to move data centers off the ground to take advantage of the solar energy in orbit, he added, \u201cit\u2019s a no-brainer.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
But feasibility, Thornburg cautioned, does not mean being able to build at speed or scale. \u201cI think it\u2019s always a question of how long it will take,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The first\u2014and most fundamental\u2014challenge is power. Running AI data centers in orbit would require \u201cginormous\u201d solar arrays that do not yet exist, Thornburg said. Today\u2019s AI chips, including Nvidia\u2019s most powerful GPUs, demand far more electricity than current solar-powered satellites can reliably provide.<\/p>\n
Boon Ooi, a professor at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute who studies long-term semiconductor challenges, put the scale into stark perspective: Generating just one gigawatt of power in space would require roughly one square kilometer of solar panels. \u201cThat\u2019s extremely heavy and very expensive to launch,\u201d he said. While the cost of transporting materials to orbit has come down in recent years, it still costs thousands of dollars per kilogram, raising the question of how to lower costs so space-based data centers could compete economically with those on earth.<\/p>\n
Even in orbit, solar power is not constant. Satellites regularly pass through earth\u2019s shadow, and solar panels cannot always remain optimally aligned with the sun. At the same time, AI chips require steady, uninterrupted power, even as their demand spikes during intensive computation.<\/p>\n
As a result, orbital data centers would also need large onboard batteries to smooth out power fluctuations, said Josep Miquel Jornet, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at Northeastern University. So far, he noted, only one startup\u2014Lumen\u2014has successfully flown even a single Nvidia H100 GPU on a satellite.<\/p>\n
Cooling presents another unresolved challenge. While space itself is cold, the methods used to cool data centers on earth\u2014airflow, liquid cooling, and fans\u2014do not work in a vacuum. \u201cThere\u2019s nothing that can take heat away,\u201d Jornet said. \u201cResearchers are still exploring ways to dissipate that heat.\u201d<\/p>\n
Other obstacles include space traffic jams and communication delays. With growing amounts of space debris in low earth orbit, managing and maneuvering large numbers of satellites would require autonomous collision-avoidance systems, Curlee said. And for many AI workloads, communicating with data centers via satellites would be slower and less energy-efficient than using fiber-connected facilities on the ground.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you have data centers on earth, fiber connections will always be faster and more efficient than sending every prompt to orbit,\u201d Jornet said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The consensus among experts is that small pilot projects may emerge by the end of the decade\u2014but not anything approaching the scale of today\u2019s terrestrial data centers.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat you\u2019ll see between now and 2030 is design iteration,\u201d Thornburg said, pointing to work on solar arrays, heat rejection systems, and orbital positioning. \u201cWill it be on schedule? No. Will it cost what we think it will? Probably not.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even SpaceX, he added, is still several years away from routinely flying its Starship launch vehicle at the cadence required to support such infrastructure. \u201cThey\u2019re in the lead, but they still have development to finish,\u201d he said. \u201cI think it\u2019s a minimum of three to five years before you see something that\u2019s actually working properly, and you\u2019re beyond 2030 for mass production.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Jornet echoed that view. \u201cTwo to three years is not realistic at the scale being promised,\u201d he said. \u201cYou might see three or four or five satellites that together look like a tiny data center. But that would be orders of magnitude smaller than what we build on earth.\u201d<\/p>\n
Still, Thornburg cautioned against dismissing the idea of orbital data centers outright. \u201cYou shouldn\u2019t bet against Elon,\u201d he said, pointing to SpaceX\u2019s long history of defying skepticism. In the long run, he added, the energy pressures driving interest in orbital data centers are unlikely to disappear. \u201cEngineers will find ways to make this work,\u201d he said. \u201cLong term, it\u2019s just a matter of how long is it going to take us.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
#data #centers #move #space #Experts #decades<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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