![](\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/img-assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/GettyImages-2250187302-e1771183939977.jpg?w=2048\")
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The K-shaped economy has dominated discourse lately, but the J-curve is entering the chat too amid debate over AI\u2019s impact on productivity.<\/p>\n
The curve refers to the idea that general-purpose technologies like AI don\u2019t produce immediate benefits. Instead, massive investment comes first, obscuring early gains. It\u2019s only after this initial dip that productivity really takes off, resulting in the J shape. But for some, it\u2019s not clear yet that the transformation is happening.<\/p>\n
Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok quipped that \u201cAI is everywhere except in the incoming macroeconomic data,\u201d recalling Robert Solow\u2019s famous quote about the PC revolution. Slok added that employment, productivity and inflation stats are still not showing signs of the new technology. Meanwhile, profit margins and earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies outside of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d also lack evidence of AI at work.<\/p>\n
\u201cMaybe there is a J?curve effect for AI, where it takes time for AI to show up in the macro data. Maybe not,\u201d he wrote in a note on Saturday.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But in a Financial Times<\/em> op-ed titled \u201cThe AI productivity take-off is finally visible,\u201d economist Erik Brynjolfsson pointed to the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics as evidence that the \u201cfog may finally be lifting.\u201d<\/p>\n Wednesday\u2019s report\u00a0revised the reading on 2025 job gains to just 181,000, down from an initial print of 584,000 and from 2024\u2019s gain of 1.46 million. <\/p>\n Given that the economy continued to expand at a healthy pace while adding so few workers last year,\u00a0with fourth-quarter GDP tracking up 3.7%, that suggests a surge in productivity.<\/p>\n Brynjolfsson said his own analysis suggests U.S. productivity jumped roughly 2.7% in 2025\u2014nearly double the 1.4% annual average seen over the past decade.<\/p>\n \u201cThe updated 2025 US data suggests we are now transitioning out of this investment phase into a harvest phase where those earlier efforts begin to manifest as measurable output,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Brynjolfsson, who is director of Stanford University\u2019s Digital Economy Lab and has been studying AI since before ChatGPT stunned the world, published a\u00a0first-of-its-kind study\u00a0last year that showed AI was hitting entry-level workers disproportionately, especially those ages 22 to 25 in highly AI-exposed professions.<\/p>\n He cautioned that several more periods of sustained growth are need to confirm a long-term trend in productivity, adding that geopolitical or monetary snafus could offset advances.<\/p>\n But while many businesses are still using AI in minimal ways, Brynjolfsson said he\u2019s found \u201ca small cohort of power users\u201d who are automating end-to-end workstreams with AI agents, completing tasks in hours instead of weeks.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cWe are transitioning from an era of AI experimentation to one of structural utility,\u201d he wrote in the FT<\/em>. \u201cWe must now focus on understanding its precise mechanics. The productivity revival is not just an indicator of the power of AI. It is a wake-up call to focus on the coming economic transformation.\u201d<\/p>\n When looking at the information and communication technology (ICT) industries, others also see clear signs that AI is boosting productivity.<\/p>\n Stephen Brown, chief deputy North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note earlier this month that ICT output during the third quarter rose despite a drop in employment.<\/p>\n While earlier payroll cuts were likely due to overhiring in the pandemic, reductions have continued even as ICT sectors have boomed, he added.<\/p>\n \u201cAll this implies that AI is making a large contribution to productivity growth,\u201d Brown declared.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n #Stanfords #original #gurus #productivity #liftoff #begun #doubling<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The K-shaped economy has domin… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[7696,2059,13185,522,827,13186,13184,1980,13183],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22127"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22127"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22127\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/22128"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}