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OpenAI\u2019s ChatGPT early lead among individual users appears to be shortening as rivals like Google\u2019s Gemini close in on its app and web market share\u2014a shift that could complicate the company\u2019s reported plans to IPO later this year. <\/p>\n
OpenAI\u2019s ChatGPT app market share fell from 69.1% in January 2025 to 45.3% in 2026, according to data from mobile intelligence data provider Apptopia, first reported by Big Technology. Over the same period, Apptopia data shows Google\u2019s Gemini chatbot app increasing its market share from 14.7% to 25.2%. Elon Musk\u2019s Grok has also been growing rapidly, hitting its highest marketshare yet at 15.2%\u2014up from 1.6% at the same time last year, according to the data.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just OpenAI\u2019s app market share that has taken a hit; rivals have also been gaining in terms of web traffic too. According to web traffic data from SimilarWeb, Gemini\u2019s main web landing page, Gemini.google.com, narrowed the gap significantly with ChatGPT.com in December 2025, with 28.38% more traffic, while ChatGPT\u2019s traffic declined 5.59%. Preliminary data shows Gemini surpassed 2 billion monthly visits for the first time in January 2026, while ChatGPT rebounded after two consecutive months of decline, though it remains below its October 2025 peak.<\/p>\n
On Wednesday, during Google-parent Alphabet\u2019s fourth-quarter earnings call, CEO Sundar Pichai also announced that Gemini had surpassed 750 million monthly active users\u2014up from 650 million from the previous quarter. While ChatGPT still likely maintains a lead with an estimated 810 million monthly active users reported in late 2025, the gap is narrowing rapidly.<\/p>\n
During the call, CEO Sundar Pichai said the launch of Gemini 3, the company\u2019s most advanced model, was a \u201cpositive driver\u201d for growth. The launch was accompanied by the viral success of Nano Banana Pro, Google\u2019s AI image generator, which captured public attention with its hyper-realistic creations. The competitive pressure on OpenAI has become so acute that CEO Sam Altman declared an eight-week \u201ccode red\u201d in December, urging employees to refocus on core products.<\/p>\n
While the app and web traffic figures reveal important trends in consumer adoption, they tell only part of the story when it comes to the broader AI market. While some of the app usage may be people using the bots for work tasks, either in authorized ways or as \u201cshadow AI,\u201d they may also be using these apps for personal tasks. The data doesn\u2019t capture API usage, which is the preferred method for enterprise integration of AI tools.<\/p>\n
On the enterprise front, Anthropic has been showing significant momentum. According to survey data from Menlo Ventures, an Anthropic investor, the AI lab holds about a third of the enterprise market, compared with 25% for OpenAI and about 20% for Google Gemini.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The trends paint a picture of an increasingly competitive AI landscape with OpenAI facing challenges on multiple fronts: losing consumer market share to Google\u2019s Gemini, contending with Anthropic\u2019s enterprise momentum, and navigating fast-growing competitors like Grok. If ChatGPT\u2019s consumer marketshare continues to drop, that could complicate OpenAI\u2019s potential IPO plans\u2014especially if Anthropic, which is reportedly considering going public, manages to go public ahead of them.<\/p>\n
Apptopia\u2019s data also found that one in five AI users now use multiple apps, suggesting users might be finding different tools useful for various tasks\u2014opening up the possibility of a market where AI companies can carve out a niche. For example, while Claude trails rivals in total app users, it dominates in engagement. In January, the average time spent per daily user was the highest at 34.7 minutes, ticking down only slightly from a similarly strong December performance.<\/p>\n
\u201cChatGPT built the category, but as viable alternatives have scaled, users are naturally diversifying their toolkit,\u201d Tom Grant, VP of Research at Apptopia, said. \u201cThe market could end up looking like streaming, where a few major players own the market, but multiple players can carve out niches based on product differentiation rather than pure network effects.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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