{"id":17521,"date":"2026-01-31T14:39:41","date_gmt":"2026-01-31T14:39:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=17521"},"modified":"2026-01-31T14:39:41","modified_gmt":"2026-01-31T14:39:41","slug":"keep-on-dreaming-could-europe-really-defend-itself-without-the-us-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=17521","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Keep on dreaming\u2019: could Europe really defend itself without the US? | Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

T<\/span>he Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte, was typically blunt when he met members of the European parliament this week. From the dais of the blond-wood committee room in Brussels, he was clear: \u201cIf anyone thinks that the European Union<\/a>, or Europe as a whole, can defend itself without the US, keep on dreaming. You can\u2019t. We can\u2019t.\u201d<\/p>\n

And if Europe<\/a> wanted to supplant the US nuclear deterrent, existing spending commitments would have to double, he added \u2013 \u201cso hey, good luck!\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

His comments left some MEPs fuming. The former Dutch prime minister \u2013 who provoked mockery when he called Donald Trump \u201cDaddy\u201d<\/a> \u2013 had already irritated some deputies with his robust defence of the US president\u2019s interest in the Arctic.<\/p>\n

France\u2019s foreign minister, Jean-No\u00ebl Barrot, chided Rutte a day later on social media: \u201cEuropeans can and must take charge of their own security. Even the United States agrees<\/a>. It is the European pillar of Nato.\u201d<\/p>\n

Spain\u2019s foreign minister, Jos\u00e9 Manuel Albares, suggested a different approach: \u201cWe must go for a ?European army,\u201d he told reporters in Brussels this week, adding, \u201cI\u2019m very much aware that you don\u2019t do that from one day to ?another\u201d. Europe, he said, needed \u201call sort?s of deterrence \u2013 economic, political, security deterrence \u2013 in our hands\u201d.<\/p>\n

But a European army has always raised more questions than answers. Is it an EU, or Europe-wide army? A brand-new force commanded from Brussels<\/a>, or a souped-up version of existing structures?<\/p>\n

<\/svg><\/span>Joint forces of the Swedish, Finnish, Italian and French army conduct an amphibious assault demonstration during the Nordic Response 24 military exercise above the Arctic Circle in Norway last March.<\/span> Photograph: Jonathan Nackstrand\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Sophia Besch, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, observed: \u201cTo supporters, it is a very visionary goal, and then to critics it is the symbol of overreach \u2013 and it\u2019s just vague enough that we never have to really discuss details.\u201d<\/p>\n

Behind the discordant public tones, however, lies a consensus that Nato\u2019s European members need to pull their weight. Nato<\/a> must \u201cbecome more European\u201d to maintain its strength, the EU\u2019s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said this week. \u201cEurope must step up,\u201d she told a defence industry audience. \u201cNo great power in history has ever outsourced its survival and survived.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Nato alliance last year pledged to increase defence spending to 5% national income<\/a> by 2035. The EU, which includes 23 Nato countries among its 27 members, has embarked on an \u20ac800bn defence spending plan<\/a>. But after a long holiday from history<\/a>, can Europe get its act together?<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Europeans are moving in the right direction and can do it,\u201d Camille Grand, a former Nato assistant secretary-general, told the Guardian. \u201cIt is a matter of a sustained effort over a few years. It is a matter of buying and acquiring the right set of capabilities to reduce their dependency on the US,\u201d said Grand, now secretary general of the Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association for Europe.<\/p>\n

Europe\u2019s ability to stand on its own two feet does not have a precise launch date. \u201cIt is not as if we could say on the 1st of January 2030: the Europeans will be completely autonomous,\u201d Grand said.<\/p>\n

<\/svg><\/span>Italian marines take up positions during the Nordic Response 24 military exercise in Norway.<\/span> Photograph: Jonathan Nackstrand\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But the date matters because policymakers, responding to warnings from the security services about a possible Russian attack, say Europe should have \u201ccredible deterrence\u201d to put off potential invaders by 2030<\/a>.<\/p>\n

From the point of view of military planners, 2030 is \u201ctomorrow\u201d, said Grand, but Europe could achieve \u201csignificant progress\u201d by then in acquiring stronger capabilities across a swathe of \u201cstrategic enablers\u201d.<\/p>\n

This refers to a mixed bag of critical capabilities where the US dominates, such as intelligence, satellites, long-range missiles, airlift and ballistic missile defence. Europe probably would not \u201ctick every single box by 2030\u201d but \u201cwe can achieve significant progress\u201d, Grand said. Although, he added, it would also require an \u201chonest conversation with the US\u201d that Europe would need some American assets beyond 2030.<\/p>\n

But Trump\u2019s threats over Greenland and hot-cold support for Ukraine that often tips into Russian talking points, have called into question Washington\u2019s commitment in a crisis.<\/p>\n

Tobias Billstr\u00f6m, a former foreign minister of Sweden who helped negotiate his country\u2019s Nato entry<\/a>, retains confidence that the US would come to Europe\u2019s aid if the collective defence clause, article 5, was triggered. He pointed out the US benefitted from Nato, citing the location and military capabilities of Arctic members, such as Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Billstr\u00f6m, who now works for Nordic Air Defence, a startup developing low-cost drone interceptors, said Europe would have to be ready to defend itself for years to come. \u201cRegardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Russia will be, graphically, where it is. It will be revanchistic. It will be set on hybrid actions. It wants to disrupt. It\u2019s going to have a very, very clear incentive to be aggressive against us for a foreseeable future.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/svg><\/span>HDMS Knud Rasmussen of the Royal Danish Navy patrolling near Nuuk in Greenland on 15 January.<\/span> Photograph: Evgeniy Maloletka\/AP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Not everyone is so sure about US guarantees. Besch, the defence expert at the Carnegie centre in Washington, thinks trust has gone. \u201cI don\u2019t think that there is very much illusion among any European policymakers now that they can trust in US security guarantees.\u201d<\/p>\n

Europe, she suggested, had to shake off decades-old habits about defining its defence interests. Europe\u2019s capability planning \u2013 \u201cwhat we buy and what we develop\u201d \u2013 is derived from Nato\u2019s regional capability plans, which still rely on a substantive contribution from the US, she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe risk of what I believe is happening right now, is that we\u2019re all spending huge amounts of money and will not actually be much more independent from the US in 10 to 15 years\u2019 time, because that money is not being spent in a coordinated and directed way to actually replace these US enablers.\u201d<\/p>\n

Money alone is not the answer to Europe\u2019s defence weakness, as illustrated by the troubled \u20ac100bn Franco-German fighter jet project, beset by disagreement and mistrust between the developers<\/a>. The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, indicated this week that the project could be scaled down to joint systems<\/a>, without an aircraft. A fighter-jet system without a fighter jet would be an emblem of European defence for all the wrong reasons.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Europe has long struggled to join up its defence spending, meaning costly duplication and a mishmash of different systems that hinder effectiveness on the battlefield. EU countries, for instance, have provided 10 different types of howitzer capable of firing 155mm shells to Ukraine \u201ccreating serious logistical difficulties for Ukraine\u2019s armed forces\u201d, according to a report by the former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi. In another example of fragmentation, Draghi noted EU member states operated 12 different types of battle tanks, while the US used one.<\/p>\n

<\/svg><\/span>A full-size model of the New Generation fighter developed by France, Germany and Spain is presented at Paris-Le Bourget airport.<\/span> Photograph: Geoffroy van der Hasselt\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

For Besch, the problem runs deeper than national industrial rivalries. \u201cThe key question here is who is Europe, what is Europe, and then what are we actually trying to do? \u2026 If our standard for success is to replace everything the US does now with European capabilities, militaries, enablers etc, we are bound to fail,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Europe, she said, needed to figure out its own strategic interests, for instance a European version of nuclear deterrence or how to safeguard its interests in regions from the Arctic to the Pacific, which could mean \u201ccheaper, faster\u201d systems.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy fear is that we are still caught up in this conversation around \u2018can we replace the US\u2019, rather than trying to decide what are we actually trying to do without them.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

#dreaming #Europe #defend #Europe<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Nato secretary general, Ma… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17522,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17521"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17521"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17521\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/17522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}