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US President Donald Trump said he intends to nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, according to a post on his Truth Social platform.<\/p>\n
\u201cI have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairman, maybe the best,\u201d Trump wrote.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn top of everything else, he is \u2018central casting,\u2019 and he will never let you down.\u201d<\/p>\n
Read\/listen:
Trump administration prepares to back Warsh for Fed chair
The importance of Federal Reserve independence<\/p>\n
Warsh, who served on the US central bank\u2019s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and has previously advised Trump on economic policy, would succeed Jerome Powell when his term at the helm ends in May. It marks a comeback for Warsh, 55, whom the president passed over for the top job in 2017 when he selected Powell.<\/p>\n
If confirmed by the Senate, the former Fed governor will take charge of US monetary policy at a time when many economists and investors see its traditional insulation from elected officials as being under threat from the White House.<\/p>\n
Warsh aligned himself with the president in 2025 by arguing publicly for lower interest rates, going against his longstanding reputation as an inflation hawk.<\/p>\n
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During his time at the Fed, Warsh was consistently wary of inflation and often supported higher interest rates. Last year, however, he echoed Trump\u2019s view that rates could be significantly lower. A willingness to cut rates is seen as a litmus test for the next chair, worrying Fed watchers that this would undermine the central bank\u2019s independence.<\/p>\n
Warsh\u2019s selection doesn\u2019t guarantee a change in policy at the Fed. Interest rates are set by a majority vote of the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee, which is composed of seven Fed governors and five of the 12 presidents of regional Fed banks. The FOMC held its benchmark rate steady this week after lowering it three consecutive times at the end of 2025, and rates remain well above where Trump has said he wants them.<\/p>\n
His Senate confirmation\u00a0may also be complicated by\u00a0a recently-announced Department of Justice probe into the central bank. On Jan. 9, the Fed received subpoenas regarding Powell\u2019s 2025 congressional testimony about a building renovation project. Powell issued an extraordinary videotaped statement decrying the probe, and several Republican lawmakers\u00a0came to the central bank\u2019s defense, with one pledging to block any Fed nominations until the legal matter was settled.<\/p>\n
Trump has been at odds with Powell almost since the current Fed chair took the helm in 2018. In 2020, the president\u00a0lamented\u00a0selecting Powell over Warsh for the position: \u201cKevin, I could have used you a little bit here. Why weren\u2019t you more forceful when you wanted that job?\u201d he said at the time.<\/p>\n
Warsh has advised Trump on economic policy as far back as his first presidential campaign. Since leaving the Fed, Warsh has frequently criticized the institution, saying recently it needs a regime change and proposing a plan for lower interest rates.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s about breaking some heads, because the way they\u2019ve been doing business is not working,\u201d Warsh told Fox News in July.<\/p>\n
Warsh was appointed to the Fed\u2019s Board of Governors by President George W. Bush in 2006 after stints in the Bush White House and, before that, on Wall Street. While he wasn\u2019t widely known when he joined the central bank, his experience and contacts in financial markets and in the banking world proved pivotal during the 2008 financial crisis.<\/p>\n
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His appointment made him the youngest person to ever serve as a Fed governor, and among the richest. He is married to Jane Lauder, the daughter of prominent Republican donor Ronald Lauder \u2014 the son of makeup scion Estee Lauder, and former Wharton School classmate of Trump\u2019s. Lauder\u00a0donated\u00a0$5 million in March to MAGA Inc., Trump\u2019s super political action committee.<\/p>\n
Warsh resigned from the Fed in 2011 shortly after it embarked on a second round of bond purchases to shore up a crisis-scarred economy. He has since been critical of the Fed\u2019s balance-sheet expansion, and now argues that by more aggressively reducing the size of it, the central bank would also be able to cut interest rates more.<\/p>\n
That openness to lower rates marks a change for Warsh, who was once so cautious about inflation that he called for higher rates even in the depths of the financial crisis.<\/p>\n
Evercore ISI economists led by Krishna Guha wrote in a note Thursday that, should Warsh be chosen, investors would react by steepening the yield curve \u2014 widening the premium of longer-dated Treasuries over shorter ones \u2014 on the expectation that he would be more hawkish than other candidates, though would hold off on a hawkish approach in 2026. They also anticipated the dollar would be higher and risk assets lower initially.<\/p>\n
While the Fed delivered three quarter-point interest-rate cuts last year \u2014 in September, October and December \u2014 Powell said on Wednesday there was broad support this week for leaving rates unchanged amid signs of some stabilization in the labor market.<\/p>\n
Bets in futures markets show investors expect rates to drop to about 3% by the end of 2026, from the range of 3.5-3.75% where they are now, still far above where Trump would like them.<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a02026\u00a0Bloomberg<\/p>\n
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