{"id":15988,"date":"2026-01-26T23:20:19","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T23:20:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=15988"},"modified":"2026-01-26T23:20:19","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T23:20:19","slug":"ray-dalio-says-the-u-s-is-a-tinderbox-after-the-minneapolis-shooting-and-trump-risks-a-more-clear-civil-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=15988","title":{"rendered":"Ray Dalio says the U.S. is a \u2018tinderbox\u2019 after the Minneapolis shooting and Trump risks a \u2018more clear civil war\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has a new warning for the U.S.: We\u2019re on a crash course toward repeating history. <\/p>\n

The billionaire investor said that current national crises\u2014from federal agents killing people in Minneapolis to the skyrocketing national debt\u2014signal a transition to a more violent phase of the American \u201cBig Cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n

“The United States is now a tinderbox,” he warned in a lengthy essay on X on Monday, titled \u201cMoney, Civil & International War, Minneapolis, and Beyond\u2014in Perspective.\u201d <\/p>\n

The post draws heavily on his 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order<\/em>, in which he analyzes 500 years of history to explain why some countries succeed and others fail, describing a six-stage, 80-year cycle that tracks the evolution of a society\u2019s monetary, domestic, and international order.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In his X post, Dalio said it is in the hands of President Donald Trump to pull away from, or step closer to, civil conflict.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cMany people are waiting to see whether President Trump will continue to fight, which I believe would risk pushing us over the brink into a more clear civil war, or if he will make an attempt to pull us back from the brink by appealing for peace, promising and showing that the justice system will handle the shootings appropriately, and curtail ICE activities,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

Dalio has for years used his Big Cycle framework to caution that the U.S. is deep into what he calls Stage 5\u2014the \u201cpre-breakdown phase\u201d characterized by bad financial conditions and internal conflict\u2014and risks teetering into Stage 6, what he calls the \u201cfinal and most painful stage,\u201d marked by the breakdown of the existing order via civil war or revolution. <\/p>\n

In the past, he has sounded the alarm about widening economic inequality and political polarization. And last week, he said in a conversation with Fortune<\/em> at Davos that we are now dealing with the \u201cbreakdown of the monetary order\u201d as the national debt now stands at $38 trillion, which he has called a common symptom of failing empires. <\/p>\n

On the brink in Minneapolis<\/strong><\/p>\n

In his latest post, Dalio argued that the killings in Minneapolis and the surging national debt together suggest the U.S. may be moving from Stage 5 into Stage 6. He cited excerpts from his 2021 book, in which he stated that \u201cpeople dying in the fighting\u201d is a sign that \u201calmost certainly signifies the progression to the next and more violent civil war stage,\u201d and that intensifying disputes between the federal government and the states is a classic historical marker for civil conflict. He also included an excerpt, stating the \u201csingle most reliable leading indicator of civil war or revolution is bankrupt government finances combined with big wealth gaps.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dalio has been edging toward this conclusion for several years. In 2024, he warned that the U.S. risked large-scale civil conflict if one side didn\u2019t accept the results of the presidential election. And in an essay that same year in Time<\/em>, he said the \u201crisk of some form of civil war is uncomfortably more than 50%.\u201d<\/p>\n

Whatever the direction that Trump takes in the wake of the killings in Minneapolis, Dalio said that the U.S. is already in a heightened state of tension.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile his choice will have huge implications for what comes next, including possibly lighting the tinderbox, in any case, it is important to see everything that is happening in the context of all the forces and events that are driving the Big Cycle,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com<\/p>\n

#Ray #Dalio #U.S #tinderbox #Minneapolis #shooting #Trump #risks #clear #civil #war<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bridgewater Associates founder… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[10585,2699,4396,486,8115,860,430,4394,1448,3423,10584,599,764,1144],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15988"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15988"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15988\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15989"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}