Emerging-market stocks, currencies and precious metals are extending a storming start to 2026 as tensions between the US and Europe weigh on the dollar and re-energize diversification flows around the world.<\/p>\n
The rally gathered pace Friday, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index heading for a fifth successive week of gains, its longest winning streak since May. The gauge has totted up a 7% advance this year, compared with a 1% gain for the S&P 500. Asian tech shares have underpinned the EM rally.<\/p>\n
Risk sentiment got a boost after China\u2019s central bank set the yuan\u2019s daily reference rate stronger than the 7-per-dollar level for the first time in over two years, signaling its tolerance of the currency\u2019s rally. South Africa\u2019s equity benchmark eyed its third successive weekly rally as gold traded just under $5,000 an ounce.<\/p>\n
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Investors are pouring cash into emerging-market funds at a record pace as momentum builds for a rotation out of US holdings. It\u2019s sent the EM stocks gauge to a record high.<\/p>\n
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While Asian technology shares drive the rally, other regions are also catching up. The benchmark for Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa has risen on all five days of this week and is on course for its best month since 2020. The MSCI EM Latin America Index of equities on Thursday closed its highest since April 2018.<\/p>\n
The Greenland tussle \u2014 even if it has been mitigated for now \u2014 has revived questions about US exceptionalism and the role of the dollar, spurring funds from Europe to India to diversify away from Treasuries. The flow has added an impetus to an EM rally fueled by robust global growth, the AI spending boom and political shifts in Latin America, as well as fiscal and monetary policy orthodoxy in much of the developing world.<\/p>\n
People \u201care looking to diversify away from US assets, and I would kind of describe it as quiet-quitting of US bonds,\u201d TCW Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Katie Koch said in a Bloomberg Television interview. \u201cI don\u2019t think there\u2019s going to be a massive announcement, I just think they\u2019re going to look for opportunities to diversify away.\u201d<\/p>\n
Currencies like the Brazilian real and Colombian and Chilean pesos have gained more than 3% this year. Meantime, the world\u2019s biggest reported gold buyer, the National Bank of Poland, on Tuesday approved plans to purchase another 150 tons of the precious metal.<\/p>\n
The $135 billion iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, which invests in EM stocks, has lured more than $6.5 billion in January. That puts it on track for the biggest monthly inflow since its inception in 2012.<\/p>\n
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\u201cEM assets are one of the key beneficiaries from stronger global growth,\u201d Oliver Harvey, a strategist at Deutsche Bank in London, wrote in a note. \u201cAnd when opportunities to express a positive growth view have been constrained in developed markets, the outlook is even more bullish for EM.\u201d<\/p>\n
To be sure, the pace of flows into emerging markets can ebb with geopolitical tensions as the pool of developing-nation assets isn\u2019t as deep as the US. With a combined value of almost $36 trillion, emerging markets are roughly half of the US market at $73 trillion.<\/p>\n
The US market may remain the top priority for some investors as focus returns to growth divergence with Europe following the \u201cpeak of stress,\u201d Citigroup Inc. strategists including Rohit Garg and Gordon Goh wrote in a note.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat said, the de-dollarization and fiscal profligacy themes are back,\u201d they wrote. \u201cDe-dollarization has the potential to impact EM risk premia in a positive way, as was the case in 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n
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