Dutchman Klaas Knot is most likely to succeed Christine Lagarde at the helm of the European Central Bank, despite other candidates being better qualified, a Bloomberg survey of economists suggests.<\/p>\n
Knot, whose stint as head of the Netherlands\u2019 central bank ended last year, leads a ranking that places Bank for International Settlements chief Pablo Hernandez de Cos second and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel third.<\/p>\n
At the same time, respondents singled out Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel as having the best skill set to take over from Lagarde when her term expires next year. De Cos, a former governor of the Bank of Spain, was second with Knot close behind.<\/p>\n
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The poll comes after Croatia\u2019s Boris Vujcic got the nod this week to become ECB vice president from June \u2014 the first step in a two-year reshuffle of the Frankfurt-based institution\u2019s Executive Board.<\/p>\n
Hailing from the region\u2019s east, Vujcic\u2019s appointment leaves the door open to candidates from both the north and south to compete for Lagarde\u2019s position. Similarly, his moderate hawkishness is unlikely to be a major issue as euro-zone officials seek to strike a balance between the profiles of the ECB\u2019s two top policymakers.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\nKlaas Knot, right, and Christine Lagarde Photographer: Lina Selg\/Bloomberg<\/p>\n
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Whoever prevails will inherit an institution facing a far more unpredictable global backdrop, with recent weeks underscoring how quickly geopolitical and institutional norms can be tested.<\/p>\n
Survey respondents value an economics degree and work experience within a central bank as most important for an ECB president. A career in finance and expertise running a monetary authority are also seen as useful, as are stints in politics and other European institutions.<\/p>\n
Being a woman \u2014 a flashpoint in past leadership selections \u2014 is among the least important considerations, according to the poll.<\/p>\n
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Rumors about front-runners have circulated for months, focusing mainly on Knot and de Cos. Both are highly regarded and have been praised publicly by Lagarde herself.<\/p>\n
Knot \u201chas the intellect, he has the stamina, he is capable of including people and that is a skill that is rare and is very necessary,\u201d she said in October. She\u2019s described de Cos as a \u201cfantastic team player\u201d and \u201cvery thorough economist.\u201d<\/p>\n
Knot was one of the ECB\u2019s most influential officials during his 14 years on the Governing Council, eventually staking out more middle-ground positions after starting his career on a hawkish foot. He also helped keep global regulatory coordination intact through periods of market stress as chairman of the Financial Stability Board.<\/p>\n
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Schnabel, too, has been encouraged by Lagarde, who said last month there are \u201cplenty of very good candidates, and Isabel is one of them.\u201d An economics professor and an adviser to Germany\u2019s government before joining the ECB in 2020, she digs deeper into key debates than many peers and has become the official economists listen to most.<\/p>\n
Schnabel, despite being viewed as the most capable candidate, faces legal hurdles, however, since ECB appointments are non-renewable and there\u2019s no clear evidence yet of a loophole. Her policy stance \u2014 at the very hawkish end of the spectrum \u2014 could also be an impediment.<\/p>\n
In general, \u201cyou probably want someone more centrist to maintain the consensus-building nature and to placate the sort of polarized elements of the Governing Council,\u201d said Andrzej Szczepaniak, a former ECB economist who now works at Nomura.<\/p>\n
While Knot, de Cos and Nagel would fit that bill, their governments are yet to reveal their plans at this early stage.<\/p>\n
The Netherlands and Germany haven\u2019t commented publicly, though Lars-Hendrik Roeller \u2014 a former economic adviser to Chancellor Angela Merkel \u2014 has said it\u2019s time for one of his countrymen to get the presidency.<\/p>\n
Spain does want another Executive Board seat once incumbent Vice President Luis de Guindos leaves in May, according to Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo.<\/p>\n
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Other candidates deemed likely or qualified successors to Lagarde include France\u2019s Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Italy\u2019s Fabio Panetta, whose countries have both held the presidency at least once. There\u2019s also Finland\u2019s Olli Rehn, who came second in the vice-presidency race.<\/p>\n
Among less likely options for survey resondents are European Investment Bank President Nadia Calvino from Spain and Joerg Kukies, Germany\u2019s interim finance minister after its last government collapsed.<\/p>\n
Amid the speculation, it\u2019s worth remembering that a dark-horse candidate could yet emerge, with Lagarde herself not among the favorites before being nominated.<\/p>\n
Most respondents expect a decision in the second quarter of 2027, though some see an earlier deal. Almost half thinks it will be part of a broader package that includes replacing Chief Economist Philip Lane, with another quarter anticipating a three-way agreement covering Schnabel\u2019s seat as well.<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n
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