{"id":10279,"date":"2026-01-07T20:58:37","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T20:58:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=10279"},"modified":"2026-01-07T20:58:37","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T20:58:37","slug":"down-arrow-button-icon-45","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microvibenews.com\/?p=10279","title":{"rendered":"Down Arrow Button Icon"},"content":{"rendered":"

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During the pandemic, millions of Americans broke into the housing market thanks to sub-3% mortgage rates. But as mortgage rates and home prices started to climb\u2014and while wages remained relatively stagnant\u2014achieving the American dream feels further out of reach than ever. Indeed, the average age of a first-time home buyer climbed to an all-time high of 40 years, according to the National Association of Realtors.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cThe historically low share of first-time buyers underscores the real-world consequences of a housing market starved for affordable inventory,\u201d Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, said in a statement. \u201cThe share of first-time buyers in the market has contracted by 50% since 2007\u2014right before the Great Recession.\u201d<\/p>\n

While there\u2019s been short-lived glimmers of hope that housing affordability could improve, like mortgage rates dropping from a 2023 peak of 8%, experts agree it\u2019s \u201cvery unlikely\u201d buying a home will become more affordable any time soon.\u00a0<\/p>\n

According to Realtor.com data shared with Fortune<\/em>, at least one of three things would need to happen: mortgage rates would need to fall to 2.65%; median household income would need to rise by 56%; or home prices would need to decline by 35%. For the mortgage calculations, Realtor.com assumed a 10% down payment, historical income data reflected median household income from the latest Census, and home prices are based on the National Association of Realtors existing home sales price, and mortgage rates came from Freddie Mac, Hannah Jones, Realtor.com senior economic research analyst, told Fortune<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The current mortgage rate is about 6.15%, which means the rate would have to drop several percentage points to reach 2.65%. Meanwhile, the median household income would need to be $132,171, but it\u2019s currently only $84,763. Home prices would need to drop to $273,000, down from $418,000, assuming incomes, mortgage rates, and the income share remain unchanged, Jones said. To put it in perspective, home prices have risen <\/em>more than 50% in just the past six years, so a drop that significant would be astounding.<\/p>\n

Unrealistic options<\/h2>\n

While it may be helpful to put actual figures on what it would take to make housing affordable, these options don\u2019t realistically align with today\u2019s market reality.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe circumstances that lead to rates the sub-3% of 2020-2021 past were a worldwide, once-in-a-lifetime (hopefully) pandemic,\u201d Max Slyusarchuk, CEO of A&D Mortgage, told Fortune<\/em>. Meanwhile, \u201cthe last time we saw a 50%-plus increase in average wages was likely post-World War II, and I believe that took two-plus decades to realize.\u201d<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s the softening job market, in which job and wage growth is slowing, which Sean Roberts, CEO of offsite construction company Villa, said isn\u2019t likely to change in the near- or medium- term. He also noted it would take \u201csome massive economic shock\u201d to get mortgage rates much lower than they are today, which is unlikely.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe mortgage market is more disciplined and regulated, most homeowners have way more equity in their homes, there is a massive share of homes without mortgages on them at all, and a great many borrowers are locked in with low mortgage payments today,\u201d Roberts said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

More than 30 million homeowners don\u2019t have a mortgage right now, and the share of homeowners who don\u2019t have a mortgage payment rose to 40% in 2023, up from 33% in 2010. That reflects a trend toward outright homeownership and conservative borrowing, according to a Goldman Sachs note from July.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe see the housing market remaining relatively stuck without major progress being made on affordability until we see income growth rapidly accelerate\u2014unlikely\u2014, mortgage rates decline very materially\u2014unlikely\u2014, home prices come down materially\u2014unlikely,\u201d Roberts added.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In fact, Realtor.com forecasts only a 0.3% drop in mortgage rates, a 2.2% year-over-year increase in home prices, and only a 3.4% wage-growth increase.<\/p>\n

And even if any of these factors were to come to fruition, we could end up with an extremely competitive housing market.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re in a tough spot,\u201d Slyusarchuk said. \u201cThe moment you make strides in any of these factors, what happens? More people are in the market buying and selling homes, which in turn increases the demand, which raises prices back up.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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